The appointment of Christine Lagarde as Managing Director of the IMF has forced President Sarkozy to reshuffle his government.

Previously, Mme Lagarde was Finance Minister. She has been replaced by the former Budget minister, François Baroin. Both are from Sarkozy’s right-wing UMP party. So, on the face of it, very little has changed.

However, in addition to the appointment of M. Baroin, the reshuffle was notable for the entry of a small number of centrist politicians to the government. President Sarkozy is facing the real threat that he might not qualify for the second round of next year’s presidential election. One reason why is because there are likely to be two centrist candidates standing against him. These candidates will take votes away from him, meaning that the second round could easily be contested between the Socialists and the National Front, leading to a Socialist victory.

In this reshuffle, President Sarkozy has appointed people who disapprove of the candidacy of at least one of the potential centrist candidates. Therefore, he is trying to weaken dissident centrists, Jean-Louis Borloo and Hervé Morin, one of whom is likely to stand (but not both), either to encourage them not to do so or to ensure that they do as badly as possible if they do stand.

One other potential issue is that President Sarkozy chose M. Baroin ahead of Bruno Le Maire, who used to be a supporter of another potential right-wing candidate, Dominique de Villepin. Seemingly, Sarkozy was going to choose M. Le Maire, but changed his mind when Baroin threatened to resign. All the same, M. Le Maire is annoyed. If this encourages him to support de Villepin again or if it encourages de Villepin to stand, then President Sarkozy’s prospects are again damaged.

So, a minor reshuffle has a very political context.

I am tweeting the French presidential election. If you want to follow events there, then please follow me on Twitter @robertelgie

The accusations against Dominique Strauss-Kahn are making headline news around the world. Without either prejudging him or trivialising the very serious accusations that have been made against him, here are some thoughts on what the situation means for next year’s French presidential election.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) has consistently been the most popular contender for the Socialist party’s (PS) presidential nomination. He had not formally declared he was going to run for the nomination, but he did in 2007 and it was almost certain that he would again this time. In 2007 he did poorly, but this time he seemed well placed. The other main contender is François Hollande, a former party leader and ex-husband of the party 2007 candidate, Ségolène Royal. For her part, Ségolène Royal may also wish to try her hand again. Another possible contender is the current party leader, Martine Aubry, who is the daughter of Jacques Delors. However, it is likely that she would not have stood if DSK was a candidate. There will be a primary to choose the party’s nominee in October.

For the PS, the stakes are very high. The opinion polls have been showing that just about any of the party’s candidate will go through to the second ballot of the presidential election. If DSK was the candidate, then he would win against any opponent. However, the same is not necessarily true of other potential PS candidates if the other second-ballot contender was from the moderate right. They are only pretty much guaranteed to win if the other second-ballot contender was from the extreme right National Front (FN).

President Sarkozy is still the best placed moderate right contender. However, polls have been showing that he might not qualify for the second ballot and that the extreme right candidate, Marine Le Pen, the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, might well go through.

So, if we assume that DSK is now out of the frame, then the chances of the PS winning have decreased. They have to hope that the FN candidate beats all of the other right-wing candidates and goes through to the second ballot. If Sarkozy were to win through, then the PS may well lose. Equally, if the PS is damaged by the whole DSK situation, then there is the possibility that its candidate may not win through to the second ballot.

This means that Sarkozy is potentially the big winner from the events of the last couple of days. That said, Sarkozy is not very popular. He also faces a potentially difficult challenge from a popular centrist figure, Jean-Louis Borloo. All the same, there is the real possibility that the moderate right will field a number of candidates. If so, then the moderate right vote will be dispersed, making it more difficult for any of them to get through to the second ballot.

The bottom line is that there is all to play for. I am tweeting the French presidential election. So, if you want to follow events there, then please feel free to follow me on Twitter @robertelgie

The second round of cantonal elections in France was held on Sunday. After the first round, the talking points were how many departments te Socialist party (PS) would be able to win and how well the National Front (FN) would do.

Le Monde is reporting that the PS has won two departments, Pyrénées-Atlantiques and Jura. It has also gained the newly created department of Mayotte and the overseas department of La Réunion. The right has taken control of one department, Val-d’Oise. There are two other departments, Savoie and Loire, where independents will determine who controls the council.

Despite the media attention on the FN, it did not do well in terms of seats. Le Monde reports that there were only two FN victories, one by five votes against a communist candidate. Notably, though, the FN score progressed relative to the first ballot. This was a sign that it increasingly has the potential to win. Previously, even if it won through to the second ballot, its vote tended to stagnate.

The turnout was 55%.

Meanwhile, new (and more reliable) opinion polls suggest that President Sarkozy will have difficulty winning through to the second ballot of the presidential election next year. The leader of the FN, Marine Le Pen, is well placed to go through against the PS candidate. That said, the figures depend on who the PS chooses as its candidates and the difference between the three candidates is not very great.

France held cantonal elections on Sunday. These are elections for so-called ‘general councillors’, who sit in the departmental (or general) councils. So, they are the equivalent of county-level (rather than regional or municipal) elections. A total of 2,023 seats were up for renewal. This is about half of the total seats at this level of government. Prior to the election, the left had a majority in 58 departmental councils, the right a majority in 39 and Modem in 3.

Le Monde is reporting an overall turnout of 44.37%, which is very low.

The left has done well. The Socialist party (PS) is credited with 25.11% with the Left-Radicals (long-time PS allies usually based in the south west of the country) winning 1.49%. In addition, ‘other left’, which comprises individual candidates many of whom are supported by the PS gained 4.84%. More generally, the ecologists won 8.3% and the Left Front, which is the communists and left wingers who split from the PS, won 9%.

On the right, President Nicolas Sarkozy’s Union for a Popular Majority (UMP) won 16% and those classing themselves as being part of the ‘presidential majority’ won 5.91%. In addition, ‘other right’ candidates won 10.98%.

The extreme right National Front (FN) did well, winning 15.26%, up 3% from 2004.

This is a two-ballot election. To qualify for the second round next weekend, candidates have to win 12.5% of the registered electorate. With a turnout of 45%, this would mean winning 28% of the vote at the first ballot. The net result is that there are likely to be few triangular contests at the second ballot between the PS, UMP and FN. Instead, there will mainly be two-way duels between a combination of these parties.

Generally, the left can hope to gain a small number of councils at the second ballot.

Le Monde is reporting a government reshuffle in France. This will be the tenth government since President Nicolas Sarkozy’s election in 2007 and the fourth reshuffle in a year.

This time, the main casualty is the Foreign Affairs Minister, Michèle Alliot-Marie. She has been heavily criticised for her seemingly appeasing attitude towards former President Ben Ali of Tunisia. In the end, her position proved untenable and, under great pressure, she resigned.

Her resignation means that former PM (and former Foreign Affairs Minister), Alain Juppé, has returned to the government as her replacement. In addition, a number of other senior ministries have been changed. Specifically, the Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Defence have also changed hands.

There is a new government in France. The surprise is that Prime Minister François Fillon has been reappointed.

Given there have long been rumours of how he and President Sarkozy do not see eye to eye, then Fillon’s reappointment is perhaps a surprise. However, recent opinion polls have suggested that if Fillon stood for the presidency, then he would defeat the likely socialist candidate, Martine Aubry, at the second ballot, whereas Sarkozy would lose. So, quite possibly, Sarkozy is following Lyndon Johnson’s famous dictum about how it is better to have your enemies in the tent pointing outside, rather than having them outside the tent pointing in (or something like that!).

The presidential election is scheduled for 2012. So, the assumption is that Fillon will be prime minister until then.

It’s Bastille Day and I’ve been on holiday in Paris, so here is a topical French post.

President Sarkozy has been having problems. Two ministers recently resigned – Christian Blanc (Minister for the Development of Paris) and Alain Joyandet (Minister for Development and Francophone Affairs). Both were implicated – rightly or wrongly (I’m not going to get sued) – in financial improprieties.

Now, the government and the president has been embroiled in another scandal. Liliane Bettencourt, a French billionaire, is linked with giving political donations to Sarkozy and to the Minister for the Budget and soon-to-be former Treasurer of the president’s UMP party, Eric Woerth. The accusations were, allegedly (note!), taped by Bettencourt’s butler!

Sarkozy has defended his minister very strongly. However, he is under great pressure. Moreover, the president’s ratings are very poor. According to TNS Sofres two weeks ago (before the affair really came to life) his confidence rating was at 26% with 71% expressing no confidence. For IPSOS 35% had a favourable opinion of him in June 2010, whereas 63% had an unfavourable opinion. However, he still has a pretty good rating among his own supporters. In other words, even though he really is under pressure, at the moment the reaction has been along partisan lines.

Finally, the president’s UMP party lost a by-election on Sunday. At the second ballot the Green candidate (the socialists did not stand) just beat the UMP candidate. Again, this was taken as a snapshot of feeling towards the president and his party.

Anyway, as I am writing this, I can hear the sound of fireworks already. Bonne fête à tous!

In France the second round of the regional elections were held on Sunday 21 March. Le Monde has presented the results in the following way:

What this means is that in metropolitan France the right now holds just one region – Alsace (in blue). The left, therefore, made one gain in total – Corsica, where it has a relative majority. A dissident socialist also holds one region – the one in pink (Languedoc-Roussillon).

The left came out of the election pretty well. Its overall vote was the highest for a long time. Perhaps more importantly still, there was only one region – Brittany – where the socialists and the ecologists could not agree a joint list. That said, there are still a lot of divisions within the left generally and within the Socialist party. In addition, the abstention rate was still very high. So, the public was not very galvanised.

If the left came out of the election pretty well, then President Sarkozy came out of it pretty badly. The right-wing coalition has started to splinter. For example, former PM Dominique de Villepin has announced that he is creating a new movement. President Sarkozy insists that the regional elections were, well, regional and that no national significance should drawn from them. Therefore, he has ruled out a reshuffle.

By contrast, Prime Minister François Fillon has emerged politically unscathed. His popularity ratings have been going up as Sarkozy’s have been declining. Oh dear. This is bad news for Fillon. The newspapers are full of supposed rifts between the two. I am surprised he has lasted this long, but his prime ministerial days are surely numbered, precisely because he is so popular.

In France the first round of elections for the 26 regional councils were held on Sunday. The second round is next Sunday.

Elections are held separately in each region. So, often, the contests are somewhat local. However, collectively they still have national importance. Le Monde reports the aggregate results.

Legend:
PS – Socialist party
UMP – Union for a Popular majority (President Sarkozy’s party)
EE – Greens
FN – National Front (extreme-right)
FDG – Communists
MoD – Modem (centrists)
NPA – New Anticapitalist Party
LO – Workers’ Struggle (trotskyite)

So, the Socialists topped the poll nationally, which was better than some predictions. However, it was hardly a runaway victory, given President Sarkozy is so unpopular. The National Front did somewhat better than expected. The votes of the extreme-left were again significant, but spread across a number of different parties. The Greens did well, but did not break through. The turnout was the second lowest ever for a national election.

In terms of the regions, France Politique provides a nice list of results.

From left to right (literally), the parties reported are: Workers’ Struggle, New Anticapitalist Party, Communists, Socialists, Greens, Independent ecologists, Modem, UMP, National Front.

The figures in bold indicate parties (or alliances) that have qualified for the second round. However, the chances are that the Socialists and the Greens will ally in most cases. This means that the left vote will be united against the moderate and extreme-right. This is why the left will win most of the regions at the second ballot.

The last elections were in 2004. Currently, the left holds 20 of the 22 regions of so-called metropolitan France. So, even a good performance by the left will not lead to many, if any, gains.

In France elections will be held in the 26 regions of France on 14 and 21 March 2010. The election is being seen as a forerunner to the presidential and legislative elections of 2012. Given President Sarkozy has been having a tough time recently, they are also the opportunity for a (slightly more than) mid-term judgment to be passed on his presidency.

Anyway, last week an Ifop poll in Paris-Match suggested that the president’s party, the UMP, is in difficulty. Here are the results:

Socialist party, 27%
UMP (Sarkozy’s party), 27%
Greens, 13%
National Front 8.5%
Modem (centrists), 6%
Communists and the Left party, 5%
Others, 4%
Anti-capitalist party (trotskyist), 3%
Workers’ Struggle (trotskyist), 2%
Alternative Greens, 2%

Obviously, the election is actually 26 separate contests and there is considerable local variation. Even so, the poll shows that, once again, the left is very divided. However, in one sense, the Socialist party has reason to be pleased in that it is running neck-and-neck with the UMP and that it is outdistancing any of its left-wing rivals by a considerable distance.