France – PS primary

In France, the Socialist party (PS) held a primary election on Sunday to choose its candidate for the 2012 presidential election. The election is important because currently the opinion polls show that the Socialists are likely to win the presidential election. Therefore, whoever the party selects as its candidate is likely to be the next president.

The voting was open to all registered voters. Around 2.5 million people voted. No candidate won an absolute majority. So, there will be a second round between the top two candidates next Sunday. The count is not fully validated yet, but the relative positions of the candidates are very unlikely to change and the percentages are pretty firm.

François Hollande, 39%
Martine Aubry, 31%
Arnaud Montebourg, 17%
Ségolène Royal, 7%
Manuel Valls, 6%
Jean-Michel Baylet, 1%

As expected, therefore, the second ballot will be between François Hollande, the former leader of the party, and Martine Aubry, the current leader.

Hollande is seen as being more centrist-friendly than Aubry and in presidential polls he does slightly better than Aubry in a contest versus Sarkozy. However, both Hollande and Aubry beat Sarkozy at the second ballot. So, the stakes are very high for both candidates at next week’s run-off.

The second round is likely to be very close. The supporters of Arnaud Montebourg are more likely to vote for Aubry than Hollande, whereas the supporters of Manuel Valls are likely to vote for Hollande. Baylet has called on his (few) supporters to vote for Hollande. Ségolène Royal is the former partner of François Hollande. She was the big loser at the primary and her votes may determine the outcome of the primary election and, indeed, the presidency.

I am tweeting the French presidential election. If you want to follow events there, then please follow me on Twitter @robertelgie

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