Time to take stock of the French presidential election.

The bottom line is that the Socialist candidate, François Hollande, has been way ahead in the opinion polls for months. He has been consistently leading at the first ballot and second ballot polls have been showing him beating President Sarkozy by up to 60-40. In some ways, Hollande has not run a very good campaign since he was chosen as the party’s candidate in October. He has flip-flopped on various policies and he has the charisma of a stone. Even so, relative to the opposition, he has been doing OK.

All of that is to say that Sarkozy has been finding the campaign difficult. There are rumours that he will officially declare his re-election campaign today. However, everyone has been aware that he would be a candidate for months. His problem is mainly economic. The French economy has not been doing well and even though Sarkozy has won (or not lost) some supporters by claiming that he will manage the economy better than Hollande, the level of unemployment is high, growth is low, debt is enormous and, generally, there is a feeling that it is time for a change.

A few weeks ago there was even a doubt that Sarkozy would win through to the second ballot. The National Front candidate, Marine Le Pen, was hot on his heels and there were dissident right-wing candidates gnawing away at his electorate. Gradually, though, most of the other right-wing and centre-right candidates either have announced that they are not standing or it has become clear that they are unlikely to get enough support to stand at all. In addition, Sarkozy has adopted a number of populist themes that have weakened Le Pen.

In terms of other candidates, the centrist, François Bayrou is fourth. He is polling respectably but has not been able to challenge for second position. Perhaps the biggest surprise is the poor performance of the Green candidate, who is polling just 2%. The Greens won 16% of the vote at the 2009 European elections. The communist-backed candidate, former socialist, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is having a good campaign and currently stands at 8.5%.

Yesterday’s IPSOS poll gives a sense of how the campaign stands:

Up to now, it has been a rather underwhelming campaign. Maybe it will heat up soon.

I am tweeting the French presidential election. If you want to follow events there, then please follow me on Twitter @robertelgie