ROBERT ELGIE Talk on semi-presidentialism ECPR, 30 August 2010

Finland - Presidential election 2nd round

Mon, 6 Feb 2012 19:30:23 +0000

The second round of the presidential election in Finland was held yesterday. The Ministry of the Interior is reporting the following result:

Sauli Niinistö, National Coalition Party (KOK) - 62.6%
Pekka Haavisto, Green League (VIHR) - 37.4%

Matthew Shugart shows that this is only the second time that a Green candidate has won through to the second round of a presidential election. However, in the end there was no surprise. Niinistö had been a long way ahead in the polls for months and he won easily.

Previous Finland posts:

24 January 2012
19 December 2011
10 November 2011
26 October 2011
4 October 2011
29 September 2011
22 September 2011
12 August 2011
21 June 2011
19 April 2011
29 November 2010
30 June 2010
5 January 2010
15 December 2009
27 October 2009
7 October 2009
12 June 2009
25 February 2009

New publications

Fri, 3 Feb 2012 18:32:53 +0000

Muiris MacCarthaigh and Maurice Manning (eds.), The Houses of the Oireachtas: Parliament in Ireland, Dublin: Institute for Public Administration, 2011.

John T. Ishiyama, Comparative Politics: Principles of Democracy and Democratization, chap. 8, Legislatures and Executives, Wiley-Blackwell, 2011.

Hayashi Tadayuki & Ogushi Atsushi (eds), Post-Communist Transformations: The Countries of Central and Eastern Europe and Russia in Comparative Perspective, Slavic Eurasian Studies No. 21, University of Hokkaido, Slavic Research Centre, 2009.

Oleg Zaznaev, ‘The presidentialisation of a semi-presidential regime: the case of Russia’, in Stephen White, ed., Politics and the ruling group in Putin's Russia, London, Palgrave Macmillan, 2008, pp.

Ergun Özbudun, 'Turkey's Search for a New Constitution', Insight Turkey, Vol. 14, No.1, 2012, pp. 39-50.

Mahmoud Hamad, 'The Constitutional Challenges in Post-Mubarak Egypt', Insight Turkey, Vol. 14, No.1, 2012, pp. 51-69, available at: http://www.insightturkey.com/Insight_Turkey_Vol_14_1_2012_Hamad.pdf

Other posts:

20 January 2012
6 January 2012
9 December 2011
4 November 2011
7 October 2011
16 September 2011
9 September 2011
2 September 2011
5 August 2011
15 July 2011
1 July 2011
6 May 2011
1 April 2011
11 March 2011
11 February 2011
4 February 2011
7 January 2011
3 December 2010
29 October 2010
15 October 2010
13 August 2010
21 June 2010
16 April 2010
19 March 2010
5 February 2010
15 January 2010
6 November 2009
9 October 2009
18 September 2009
22 August 2009
11 July 2009
29 May 2009
14 April 2009
20 March 2009
20 February 2009
23 January 2009
15 December 2008
31 October 2008
27 October 2008
27 September 2008
28 August 2008
8 July 2008
30 May 2008
25 February 2008
22 February 2008
13 February 2008
6 February 2008
13 January 2008
4 January 2008

Armenia - Coalition tensions

Thu, 2 Feb 2012 20:08:18 +0000

A quick post today. RFE/RL has a really informative post about the current state of the party system in Armenia, particularly the increasingly tense relations between the three-party ruling coalition. There’s little point in me repeating it. So, the link to the page is here.

Previous Armenia posts:

21 November 2011
29 June 2011
20 April 2010
7 January 2010
30 November 2009
28 October 2009
6 October 2009
22 February 2008

Taiwan - New PM

Wed, 1 Feb 2012 18:07:19 +0000

Newly re-elected Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan has appointed a new prime minister. The previous PM, Wu Den-yih, was elected as Vice-President on President Ma’s ticket.

The new PM is Sean Chen, a financial expert. Taipei Times provides some details about the new cabinet.

The election of VP Wu required the appointment of a new PM. Moreover, the new session of the Legislative Yuan is about to start very soon. However, because the date of the presidential election was brought forward to allow concurrent presidential and legislative elections last month, President Ma’s second term does not formally begin until May.

Previous Taiwan posts:

16 January 2012
21 December 2011
23 November 2011
15 June 2011
30 November 2010
30 March 2010
1 March 2010
21 January 2009
7 December 2009
17 November 2009
21 August 2009
21 May 2008
23 March 2008
25 February 2008

Senegal - 14 presidential candidates

Tue, 31 Jan 2012 19:39:40 +0000

The presidential election in Senegal will take place on 26 February. The contest is already proving divisive.

The most recent controversy surrounds the decision by the Constitution Court to validate President Wade’s bid to stand for re-election. He was first elected in 2000. There was then a new constitution in 2001 that limited the president to two terms. Wade made the case that the first time he was elected when there were term limits was in 2007. Therefore, he is entitled to stand again in 2012. The Court, which contains Wade appointees, upheld his candidacy.

Almost as controversially, though, it rejected the candidacy of singer, Youssou N’Dour, who had considerable popular backing.

The Court’s decisions have provoked rioting and a number of deaths. The opposition to Wade is trying to call it a Senegal spring. As things stand, though, the level of public protest does not seem to be great enough to generate regime change. Moreover, an election is very close. So, there is still the hope for many that there will be an electoral transition.

In that regard, the Court did validate the candidacy of many of Wade’s opponents, including three high-profile former prime ministers who have fallen out with the president. The problem for the opposition candidates, though, is that they are hopelessly divided. That said, Wade was unable to pass the reform that would have reduced the first-round threshold to the point where he was virtually guaranteed of being re-elected at the first ballot. In one sense, therefore, the real competition is for second place in the expectation that the opposition to Wade may yet unite at the second ballot and defeat him. This would a highly ironic outcome as it would mirror Wade’s own victory in 2000 against the then long-time leader, Abdou Diouf. However, Wade is likely to try to buy off opposition candidates in between the two ballots to ensure his re-election.

Other Senegal posts:

21 July 2011
24 June 2011
3 June 2011
1 July 2010
21 September 2009
22 May 2009
1 May 2009
30 March 2009
5 November 2008
1 August 2008

Slovenia - New government

Mon, 30 Jan 2012 11:42:51 +0000

Slovenia finally has a government. The new Prime Minister is Janez Janša from the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS). Janša was previously PM from 2004-2008.

The new government is a five-party coalition comprising SDS, Slovenian People's Party (SLS), Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (DeSUS), Gregor Virant's Civic List (LGV) and New Slovenia (NSi).

The investiture vote was held on Saturday. Janša was approved by 51 votes to 39.

I only have Wikipedia’s election page to go by, but it looks as if the Slovenian President, Danilo Türk, played a role in the government formation process. There is some evidence that he was not happy with Janša’s nomination, preferring Zoran Janković, whose candidacy for PM had been rejected a couple of weeks ago. However, it seems as if parliament went ahead and nominated Janša against the president’s wishes.

Previous Slovenia posts:

18 January 2012
5 December 2011
21 September 2011
29 August 2011
23 June 2011
13 June 2011
14 December 2010
26 October 2010
12 October 2010
14 June 2010
3 March 2010
13 June 2009
10 November 2008
22 September 2008

Is this the first reference to semi-presidentialism? (15)

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 18:53:38 +0000

I have been doing some more digging into when Maurice Duverger first started to use the term ‘semi-presidential’?

In a previous post, I noted that in 1951 on p. 431 of the first edition of his book Les partis politiques (Political Parties) he refers to Weimar Germany being a semi-presidential regime. To my knowledge, this is the first time that he uses this term in print. He sticks with it throughout the various editions of this book.

However, between 1951 and 1970, when he systematically identifies a set of semi-presidential countries, he continues to use the term, but there is no consistency to its use.

For example, in the first edition of his book La Ve République (The Fifth Republic), he uses the term on p. 201 to refer to a type of regime that the left would like to introduce without specifying what type of regime. In the second edition of 1960 (p. 191) he maintains this use of the term. However, by the third edition in 1963, when France has actually become semi-presidential following the 1962 reform, he does not use the term.

In 1960 in his article ‘Introduction à une sociologie des régimes politiques’ in G. Gurvitch (ed.), Traité de Sociologie, vol. 2, he uses the term on p. 9 when discussing regimes generally, though he does not define the term. Also, in 1961 he uses it on p. 122 of his book La VIe République et le régime présidentiel (The Sixth Republic and the Presidential Regime) when talking about possible reforms to the French system.

The fact that he is using the term loosely and that he is still searching for a systematic classification of regimes can also be seen in the 3rd and 4th editions of his book La Ve République. On p. 16 of the 3rd ed. (1963), he classifies the reformed (semi-presidential) Fifth Republic a ‘Weimarian’ regime. On p. 17 of the 4th ed. (1968) he drops all reference to Weimar, but calls the reformed French system ‘a mixed regime, midway between a parliamentary and a presidential regime’. Similarly on p. 19, he calls it ‘a mixed, half-parliamentary, half-presidential regime’.

It is clear, then, that even though his use of the term ‘semi-presidential was very fluid prior to 1968, by that time Duverger is very close to the systematic definition that will follow just two years later.

Other posts on this topic:

25 November 2011
14 January 2011
24 December 2010
4 June 2010
28 May 2010
21 May 2010
14 May 2010
30 October 2009
2 July 2009
26 June 2009
18 June 2009
4 June 2009
1 December 2008
28 October 2008

See also:

24 July 2009 - The first reference to cohabitation

Bulgaria - First sign that cohabitation has ended?

Thu, 26 Jan 2012 17:45:16 +0000

The new Bulgarian president, Rosen Plevneliev, was inaugurated last Sunday. His inauguration ended Bulgaria’s sometimes conflictual period of cohabitation.

Yesterday, Novinite reports, the president and the prime minister, Boyko Borisov, agreed the appointment of 24 new Ambassadors.

There has been an ongoing issue concerning the continuing presence of public officials who formerly served as State Security agents during the communist regime. Allegedly, some of the existing Ambassadors had such a background.

This issue has been particularly politicised because of former President Parvanov’s admittal that there was a State Security file on him and of allegations that he too was a State Security agent.

So, I suspect it is not a coincidence that almost immediately after coming to power and the end of cohabitation, President Plevneliev and PM Borisov have agreed a new set of ambassadorial appointments. This is an issue that requires the president’s approval. We should also expect to see a sharp decline in the number of presidential vetoes.

Previous Bulgaria posts:

1 November 2011
25 October 2011
14 September 2011
27 July 2011
27 June 2011
19 May 2011
24 January 2011
5 January 2011
16 November 2010
12 May 2010
1 April 2010
15 March 2010
17 February 2010
10 February 2010
19 November 2009
23 July 2009
11 June 2009
17 February 2009

Croatia - Referendum

Wed, 25 Jan 2012 20:37:20 +0000

On Sunday Croatia held only the second referendum in its history, the first being in 1991. Croatians were asked whether they approved of Croatia’s accession to the European Union. Here is the result:

Yes - 66.27%
No - 33.13%
Invalid - 0.6%

The turnout was very low at only 43.51%

Previous posts on Croatia:

26 December 2011
6 December 2011
20 January 2010
4 January 2010
25 November 2009
9 September 2009
23 July 2009
8 July 2009
2 June 2009
20 May 2009

Finland - Presidential election

Tue, 24 Jan 2012 20:00:33 +0000

The first round of the presidential election in Finland was held on Sunday. The Ministry of the Interior is reporting the following scores:

Sauli Niinistö, National Coalition Party (KOK) - 37.0
Pekka Haavisto, Green League (VIHR) - 18.8
Paavo Väyrynen, Centre Party (KESK) - 17.5
Timo Soini, Finns Party - 9.4
Paavo Lipponen, Social Democratic Party (SDP) - 6.7
Paavo Arhinmäki, Left Alliance - 5.5
Eva Biaudet, Swedish People's Party (SFP) - 2.7
Sari Essayah, Christian Democrats (KD) - 2.5

So, there is a potentially interesting second round. The long-time poll leader, Sauli Niinistö, of the conservatives was well ahead, but slightly down on some of his previous poll figures. The Green candidate beat the KESK party candidate and qualified for the second round. So, even though the two remaining candidates represent government parties, there is the potential for a left-right split. Moreover, if for strategic rather than ideological reasons the main opposition party, KESK, decides to support the Greens rather than KOK, then the result could actually be quite close. That said, the polls have been showing a win for Niinistö for months now.

I wonder how many Green candidates have ever qualified for the second ballot of a presidential election?

The second round will be held on 5 February.

Previous Finland posts:

19 December 2011
10 November 2011
26 October 2011
4 October 2011
29 September 2011
22 September 2011
12 August 2011
21 June 2011
19 April 2011
29 November 2010
30 June 2010
5 January 2010
15 December 2009
27 October 2009
7 October 2009
12 June 2009
25 February 2009

SP resources - Freedom House 2012 Report

Mon, 23 Jan 2012 19:19:23 +0000

The Freedom House 2012 Report has just been issued, giving the number of Free, Partly Free and Not Free countries as well as a list of Electoral Democracies for the period 1 January-31 December 2011.

Given so much happened in 2011, there has been remarkably little change.

Only one country, Gambia, declined from the status of Partly Free to Not Free. One country, Tunisia, improved from Not Free to Partly Free.

Within these three categories, there were some improvements and disimprovements, even if there was no change in overall status. In terms of semi-presidential countries, there were only three changes. Ukraine and Yemen’s scores declined, even though the former remained Partly Free and the latter Not Free. By contrast, Niger’s score improved, even though it remained Partly Free. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan were given downward-tending arrows, even though neither their scores nor their status changed.

In terms of electoral democracies, one country, Nicaragua, lost this status. By contrast, three countries gained this status, including Niger. This is the only change that affects semi-presidential countries in this regard. The other countries to gain the status of an electoral democracy were Thailand and Tunisia, which, of course, lost its semi-presidential status following last year’s revolution and the constitutional changes there.

Other SP resources:

19 October 2011 (Ibrahim Index of African Governance 2010)
8 July 2011 (Polity 2010 scores)
19 January 2011 (Freedom House report 2011)
6 October 2010 (Ibrahim Index of African Governance 2010)
24 September 2010 (Freedom House country reports 2010)
17 September 2010 (Polity 2009)
23 February 2010 (Election reports)
14 January 2010 (Freedom House report 2010)
21 October 2009 (Ibrahim Index of African Governance 2009)
16 June 2009 (Afrobarometer)
27 January 2009 (Ireland)
16 January 2009 (Polity 2007 scores)
14 January 2009 (Freedom House report 2009)
18 December 2008 (Togo)
9 October 2008 (Ibrahim Index of African Governance 2008)
29 August 2008 (Elections)
19 May 2008 (Polity 2006 scores)

New publications

Fri, 20 Jan 2012 20:25:04 +0000

International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA), A Practical Guide to Constitution Building, available at: http://www.idea.int/publications/pgcb/index.cfm

Susan Stewart, Margarete Klein, Andrea Schmitz and Hans-Henning Schröder (eds.), Presidents, Oligarchs and Bureaucrats. Forms of Rule in the Post-Soviet Space, Ashgate, 2012.

Richard Sakwa, The Crisis of Russian Democracy: The Dual State, Factionalism and the Medvedev Succession, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2011.

Tanya Bagashka, 'Presidentialism and the Development of Party Systems in Hybrid Regimes: Russia 2000–2003', Europe-Asia Studies, 64:1, 2012, pp. 91-113.

Stephen Bloom and Stephen Shulman, 'Interest versus Identity: Economic Voting in Ukrainian Presidential Elections', Post-Soviet Affairs, Volume 27, Number 4 / October-December 2011, pp. 410-428.

Uros Pinteric, Developing a Parliamentary Seniority System. A Case Study of Slovenia, Problems of Post-Communism, vol. 58, no. 6, November/December 2011, pp. 36–47.

Est Europa - La Revue, 2011, no. 2, reviews of 2010 for Bulgaria, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia, available at: http://www.est-europa.univ-pau.fr/est-europa-la-revue/numero-en-cours.html

Journal of Democracy, articles on Turkey Under the AKP, Volume 23, Number 1, January 2012

Stephen Quinlan, 'The Lisbon Experience in Ireland: ‘No’ in 2008 but ‘Yes’ in 2009 – How and Why?', Irish Political Studies, Volume 27, Issue 1, 2012, pp. 139-153.

Other posts:

6 January 2012
9 December 2011
4 November 2011
7 October 2011
16 September 2011
9 September 2011
2 September 2011
5 August 2011
15 July 2011
1 July 2011
6 May 2011
1 April 2011
11 March 2011
11 February 2011
4 February 2011
7 January 2011
3 December 2010
29 October 2010
15 October 2010
13 August 2010
21 June 2010
16 April 2010
19 March 2010
5 February 2010
15 January 2010
6 November 2009
9 October 2009
18 September 2009
22 August 2009
11 July 2009
29 May 2009
14 April 2009
20 March 2009
20 February 2009
23 January 2009
15 December 2008
31 October 2008
27 October 2008
27 September 2008
28 August 2008
8 July 2008
30 May 2008
25 February 2008
22 February 2008
13 February 2008
6 February 2008
13 January 2008
4 January 2008