ROBERT ELGIE

Ukraine - Rules for building a parliamentary majority changed

Thu, 11 Mar 2010 18:06:43 +0000

Some of you may already be familiar with the ‘iron law of the semi-presidential one’ - if your country appears on average more than once a week in the posts, then it is in trouble! Well, Ukraine is currently suffering under the weight of this law.

Kyiv Post reports that the Ukrainian parliament has passed a law that amends the Verkhovna Rada’s rules of procedure and that changes the rules determining the formation of coalition governments.

As reported in a previous post last week, Art. 83 of the Constitution states: “A coalition of deputy factions in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine shall be formed ... within one month after the date of termination of the activity of a coalition of deputy factions in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine”.

However, the amended rules of procedure allow individual deputies to register their support for a coalition rather than allowing only factions as a whole to do so. The aim is to make it easier for coalitions to be formed, specifically for newly-elected President Yanukovych to form a majority government.

I am no constitutional lawyer, as some will know better than others, but this law is surely unconstitutional.

Unsurprisingly, Yanukovych’s defeated presidential opponent, Yulia Tymoshenko, has denounced the change as unconstitutional. The Ukrainian politics blog, Ukraine Today also considers it to be unconstitutional.

Presumably, this law will be challenged, which will mean that the Constitutional Court will be forced to side with either the president or the opposition, thus politicising it. If a government is found to have been formed unconstitutionally, then, arguably, all of the actions of that government are null and void, which would raises major problems of governance. Ukrainian politics is notoriously volatile, but President Yanukovych’s term of office does seem to have begun rather inauspiciously.

Other Ukraine posts:

4 March 2010
26 February 2010
24 February 2010
9 February 2010
3 February 2010
27 January 2010
19 January 2010
23 December 2009
28 August 2009
3 June 2009
18 May 2009
16 March 2009
6 February 2009
19 December 2008
12 December 2008
9 December 2008
17 November 2008
10 October 2008
17 September 2008
4 September 2008
15 May 2008

Chad - New PM

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 07:32:36 +0000

It is really difficult to follow anything that goes on in Chad. However, there is news of a change of prime minister.

Jeune Afrique reports that on Friday 8 March Prime Minister Youssouf Saleh Abbas resigned as prime minister. He had been appointed in April 2008. (See previous post). He has been replaced by Emmanuel Nadingar, who was previously the Minister for Petrol, a key position in the government.

No reasons for M. Saleh Abbas’ resignation have officially been given. However, there are reports of tensions between Saleh Abbas and President Idriss Déby and an expectation that the PM would resign for a few weeks. However, no details about the nature of the tensions have been provided.

Previous Chad posts:

25 April 2008

Iceland - Referendum result

Tue, 9 Mar 2010 15:56:12 +0000

In Iceland the so-called Icesave referendum was held on Saturday. Recall that the referendum was precipitated by President Grímsson’s decision to veto the Icesave Bill in early January. Information about the Icesave issue/debacle/dispute can be found here.

As reported in a previous post, the earliest indications were that the referendum would be close and even that the president’s veto might be overturned. However, the final result was somewhat different to say the least.

Iceland Review gives the final figures for the referendum:

Registered voters: 229,977
Voting: 144,231 (62.72 per cent)

Blank ballots: 6,744 (4.7 per cent)
Invalid/spoilt ballots: 491 (0.3 per cent)
Voting Yes: 2,599 (1.8 per cent, or 1.9 per cent of the valid votes cast)
Voting No: 134,397 (93.2 per cent, or 98.1 per cent of the valid votes cast)

Other Iceland posts:

25 January 2010
8 January 2010
13 May 2009
20 April 2009
18 February 2009
2 February 2009
28 January 2009
2 June 2008

Togo - Presidential election

Mon, 8 Mar 2010 12:50:01 +0000

The presidential election was held in Togo on 4 March. The election was held by way of a single ballot majority system. This system was always thought to strengthen the chances of the incumbent president, Faure Gnassingbé. The pundits seem to have been right, even though the votes for the opposition were concentrated on one candidate.

Togosite reports that Faure Gnassingbé has won 60.92% of the vote. The main opposition candidate, Jean-Pierre Fabre, won 33.94% and the next candidate, Yawovi Agboyibo, won only 2.96%. There were four other candidates.

The opposition have contested the results. Jean-Pierre Fabre claims that he won 55-60% of the vote. Jeune Afrique reports that on Saturday there was a rally against the result that was broken up by tear gas, during which Fabre and former candidate (and former French minister), Kofi Yamgnane, were slightly wounded. However, contestation does not seem to be general and the international community has not come out against the result.

Other Togo posts:

3 December 2009
3 September 2009
22 April 2009
18 December 2008
11 September 2008

Turkey - Articles on the president

Fri, 5 Mar 2010 18:39:18 +0000

I don’t have much time today, so I am just pointing anyone interested in the direction of two newspaper articles on the Turkish president. Both are from the newspaper Hürriyet, which, it should be understood, is not a particularly pro-AKP publication. (The AKP is the president’s party). However, the articles are not overly partisan.

The first report provides an overview of President Abdullah Gül actions in office since his election in 2007. It points out that President Gül has not acted as an ‘executive leader’, but that he has been restrained. We would probably not have expected very much else, given the president does not have many constitutional powers relative to some other semi-presidential presidents. However, the overview is interesting, I think.

The second report speculates as to whether the next presidential election scheduled for 2012 will result in a period of cohabitation. The interest lies not so much perhaps in the speculative content, but in the fact that a Turkish commentator explicitly discusses Turkey in the context of other semi-presidential countries and that term ‘cohabitation’ is openly used. Hear, Hear to both points.

Other Turkey posts:

1 April 2009
26 December 2007

Ukraine - Government defeated in no-confidence vote

Thu, 4 Mar 2010 16:18:32 +0000

In Ukraine, the government has been defeated in a vote of no-confidence.

As reported in a previous post, last week a similar motion was withdrawn to give more time to the Party of the Regions to ensure that the vote was successful. It worked. The motion was supported by 243 votes in the 450-seat chamber.

According to Kyiv Post, the vote was supported by all 172 deputies from the Party of the Regions, 15 from former President Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense Bloc, 19 from the Bloc of Lytvyn deputies, 27 Communist Party deputies, three deputies representing no faction, and seven from the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko i.e., her own faction supporters.

As reported in Ukraine Today, Art. 83 of the Constitution states: “A coalition of deputy factions in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine shall be formed ... within one month after the date of termination of the activity of a coalition of deputy factions in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine”. In other words, the Party of the Regions must now win the support of at least 226 deputies, organised by faction (i.e. not just individuals), in the legislature. They have 172 deputies of their own, so some horse-trading will have to go on.

Failure to form a government will eventually lead to a new parliamentary election. Art. 90 states: “The President of Ukraine shall have the right to an early termination of powers of the Verkhovna Rada in the following cases: 1) the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine fails to form a coalition of deputy factions in compliance with Article 83 of this Constitution within one month; 2) no new Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has been formed within sixty days after the resignation of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine”.

Other Ukraine posts:

26 February 2010
24 February 2010
9 February 2010
3 February 2010
27 January 2010
19 January 2010
23 December 2009
28 August 2009
3 June 2009
18 May 2009
16 March 2009
6 February 2009
19 December 2008
12 December 2008
9 December 2008
17 November 2008
10 October 2008
17 September 2008
4 September 2008
15 May 2008

Slovenia - Opposition tries to impeach president

Wed, 3 Mar 2010 19:35:00 +0000

President Danilo Tuerk of Slovenia faced an impeachment vote in parliament yesterday. The motion to dismiss the president (on the basis of Art. 109 of the 1991 Constitution) was tabled on 28 January by the opposition Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) and the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS). Slovenia Times reports that the vote against the president yesterday evening was 32-52.

A report by the Slovenian Press Agency gives some background. Apparently the two opposition parties were annoyed that the president decorated Tomaz Ertl, a former chief of the communist secret police, whom they accused of having violated human rights. Indeed, the opposition accused the president of breaking no fewer than 34 articles of the constitution in so doing. In his defense, President Tuerk is reported as saying that he was not decorating Ertl’s whole life, but only “his efforts as the head of a police operation that prevented a rally by Serb nationalists in Ljubljana in 1989”.

Currently, the government is led by the Social Democrats (SD) who are in coalition with Zares and Liberal Democracy (LDS), as well as the pensioners’ party DeSus. The government has a small majority in parliament.

President Tuerk was elected in June 2007. He stood as an independent (and for cohabitation or non-cohabitation purposes I record him as such), but he was clearly the candidate of the left and won the election against another independent candidate, but one who was equally clearly supported by the right-wing SDS and SLS.

In a separate development, the leader of DeSus, Karl Erjavec ,was obliged to resign his position as Minister of the Environment and Spatial Planning on 26 January as the result of issues relating to alleged financial mismanagement. He was replaced by another DeSus representative. So, the coalition remains intact.

It is tempting to think that the impeachment vote, which was tabled just after this resignation, was at least part of a general strategy to destabilise the government further and perhaps precipitate a change.

Previous Slovenia posts:

13 June 2009
10 November 2008
22 September 2008
10 November 2008

Haiti - Presidential palace

Tue, 2 Mar 2010 16:34:23 +0000

I thought I would share this amazing image of the ruined presidential palace in Port-au-Prince.

The previous presidential palace was destroyed in 1912 in an explosion that killed the incumbent president. The new palace was built along the lines of the US White House as a replacement.

What is not immediately clear from the picture below is that it used to be a two-storey building. The earthquake collapsed the two storeys like a concertina.

Haiti en Marche has an article that describes how President Préval had an almost miraculous escape when the building was destroyed. Apparently, he had been due to leave for a meeting, but the meeting was delayed. So, he was in the palace when the earthquake hit, even though he was scheduled to be elsewhere. Only a few moments before the earthquake, he stepped out of his office into the courtyard. When the earthquake struck, his office was completely demolished.

Even though President Préval had a lucky escape, dozens of people died in the palace when it collapsed.

Other Haiti posts:

11 November 2009
2 November 2009
1 October 2009
1 July 2009
29 April 2009
3 April 2009
5 March 2009
8 September 2008
27 August 2008
2 August 2008
25 July 2008
17 July 2008
4 July 2008
15 June 2008
14 May 2008
7 May 2008
29 April 2008
23 April 2008
13 April 2008

Taiwan - Legislative Yuan by elections

Mon, 1 Mar 2010 06:22:29 +0000

This is not a repeat post! In January the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party in Taiwan lost three by-elections to the Legislative Yuan. On Saturday, it lost three more!

On 27 February four by-elections were held. They took place because because the deputies that had previously held the seats had been elected as county magistrates and cumulative office-holding is forbidden.

In the elections, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DMM) won the seats in Hsinchu, Taoyuan and Chiayi counties, while the KMT retained its seat in Hualien county. It is not entirely clear to me whether the three DPP seats were all gains from the KMT, but there is a report that says that the Hsinchu and Taoyuan seats used to be KMT strongholds, suggesting gains there at least.

In Taoyuan the result was relatively close with the DPP’s candidate winning 45,363 votes compared with 42,600 for the KMT. However, in Hsinchu and Chiayi the DPP had big majorities. In Hsinchu the DPP won 71,625 votes compared with 56,342 for the KMT, while in Chiayi the results was 57,451 to 27,138 respectively. In Hualien the KMT’s victory was comfortable, the party’s candidate winning 39,379 votes to 33,249 for the DPP. Source: Central Election Commission of Taiwan.

The results were another blow to the KMT and to President Ma, who was elected in 2009.

According to Taiwan News the KMT now has 75 seats in the Legislative Yuan (including 4 seats for two other parties), the DPP has 33 seats, and there are 5 independents.

Previous Taiwan posts:

21 January 2009
7 December 2009
17 November 2009
21 August 2009
21 May 2008
23 March 2008
25 February 2008

Ukraine - Cohabitation, but for how long?

Fri, 26 Feb 2010 19:38:47 +0000

Victor Yanukovych was inaugurated yesterday as President of Ukraine. As I understand it, this means that, technically, Ukraine has entered a period of cohabitation. To the best of my knowledge, there are no representatives of his Party of the Regions in the government. The government is still headed by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

This period of cohabitation should, in theory, be short. However, the battle for the premiership is ongoing. Ukraine has a premier-presidential form of semi-presidentialism since the 2006 constitutional reforms. Therefore, the president cannot dismiss the PM. The last legislative elections were held in September 2007, so there is some way to go before the next scheduled election. The Party of the Regions is currently negotiating with other groups and deputies in parliament with a view to forming a majority. To date, though, no agreement has been reached.

In this context, on Wednesday Prime Minister Tymoshenko had planned to hear a vote of no-confidence in the government that had been tabled by the Party of the Regions. According to Ukrainian Journal, she calculated that the motion would fail and that, therefore, she would be unable to be dismissed by the parliament for another year (Art. 87). However, the Party of the Regions withdrew the motion on Tuesday, giving them more time to try to construct a stable anti-Tymoshenko majority.

If it proves impossible to dismiss Tymoshenko, then there is still the option of dissolving parliament. However, President Yanukovych, and others, would prefer to avoid this option if possible, because the composition of the new legislature may be no less favourable to him.

In the end, a new majority is likely to be reached fairly soon, not least because party loyalties in the legislature are weak. However, this does not mean that any such majority would be enduring. In the meantime, the battle for the premiership continues and cohabitation continues.

Other Ukraine posts:

24 February 2010
9 February 2010
3 February 2010
27 January 2010
19 January 2010
23 December 2009
28 August 2009
3 June 2009
18 May 2009
16 March 2009
6 February 2009
19 December 2008
12 December 2008
9 December 2008
17 November 2008
10 October 2008
17 September 2008
4 September 2008
15 May 2008

Slovakia - Election poll

Thu, 25 Feb 2010 17:03:11 +0000

A general election is due to be held in Slovakia on 12 June. The Slovak Spectator has published an overview of the performance of the parties in the polls over the years, as well as the results of the most recent poll.

The current government is a coalition of the left-wing Smer party, the nationalist Slovak National Party (SNS) and the People’s Party – Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (ĽS-HZDS). The PM, Robert Fico, is from Smer.

In terms of general trends, the following image captures the situation nicely:

In other words, there has been a rise in support for the right-wing parties since the last election, but probably not enough to dislodge a Smer-led government. Indeed, the level of support for Smer is still quite a bit higher than its vote at the 2006 election.

In terms of party support, the Slovak Spectator reports the following:

Smer 38.6 per cent
Slovak National Party 6.2 per cent
Movement for a Democratic Slovakia 5.8 per cent
Slovak Democratic and Christian Union 11.3 per cent
Freedom and Solidarity 9.6 per cent
Christian Democratic Movement 9.6 per cent
Most-Híd 5.6 per cent
Hungarian Coalition Party 5 per cent

A very useful website/blog for Slovakian parties and elections, pozorblog, seems to suggest that a Smer-SNS coalition is the most likely outcome of the election at this point.

Other Slovakia posts:

27 November 2009
10 July 2009
8 June 2009
6 April 2009
23 March 2009

Ukraine - Following post-election events

Wed, 24 Feb 2010 20:04:43 +0000

There are various ways of following the unfolding events in Ukraine. One really useful academic-oriented blog is run by the Petro Jacyk Program for Study of Ukraine at the University of Toronto. There are some very thoughtful reflections on the election and its aftermath. Another blog that tries to cover events dispassionately is Ukraine Today, which has a couple of reports on post-coalition dealing. A very good English-language newspaper source is the Kyiv Post, which has the text in English of Prime Minister Tymoshenko’s address to the nation on 22 February. All of the articles written by Taras Kuzio, a well known commentator on Ukrainian politics, for the Jamestown Foundation are available online. Finally, Electoral Geography has the regional results for the second round of the election.

Other Ukraine posts:

9 February 2010
3 February 2010
27 January 2010
19 January 2010
23 December 2009
28 August 2009
3 June 2009
18 May 2009
16 March 2009
6 February 2009
19 December 2008
12 December 2008
9 December 2008
17 November 2008
10 October 2008
17 September 2008
4 September 2008
15 May 2008