According to Haiti Libre, 58 deputies in the lower chamber of parliament have signed a declaration pledging their support for President Martelly. If the information is accurate and if the agreement lasts, then this would be a major boost for the president, who, to date, seems to have been powerless to act since his election.

However, Radio Kiskeya is reporting that the Senate has rejected the president’s most recent nomination for prime minister, Bernard Gousse. There are 30 senators, but a so-called ‘group of 16’, comprising mainly former President Préval’s supporters, had consistently opposed M. Gousse’s nomination. There had been rumours that the majority in the Chamber of Deputies would encourage various of the group of 16 senators to support President Martelly there. However, evidently this is did not happen.

Haiti has been without a government for three months.

In Haiti, President Martelly and nominated a new candidate for prime minister. The previous nominee was rejected by the Chamber of Deputies last week.

The new nominee is Bernard Gousse, a lawyer. Radio Kiskeya is reporting that the majoritarian GPR group in the legislature is opposed to the nomination. President Martelly has met representatives of the two houses of the legislature in recent days, but the new nomination is not being viewed as a compromise or consensual candidate.

The nomination is almost certain to fail.

In Haiti, newly-elected President Martelly’s nomination for prime minister has been rejected by the Chamber of Deputies. President Martelly had nominated Gérard Daniel Rouzier, a political outsider.

Le Matin is reporting that when the investiture vote was taken 42 deputies voted against M. Rouzier, only 19 deputies supported him and 3 abstained.

There is now a report giving an indication that the president is consulting with the presidents of the two houses with a view to coming up with a new name. This is being portrayed as a change of presidential strategy.

Given the president’s opponents in the legislature are so much more numerous than his supporters, the logic is that the president should accept their nominee for prime minister and try to ensure that his supporters are represented in the government. This would avoid a period of cohabitation, even if the president’s power would be limited. However, the president seems to be insisting on nominating a political friend. If he continues to do so, then the opposition will keep on vetoing the nomination.

In Haiti on Sunday there were by-elections to three seats in the Chamber of Deputies. These were second-round contests for seats where there was violence at the first round back on 28 November. In addition, Alter-Presse indicates that there are 17 deputies whose recent election is contested following the recent legislative election. So, the exact composition of the Chamber is not yet known.

The composition of the Senate has also not yet been determined. There are at least two Senators whose election is contested in the same way. The number may be small, but the issue is important because there are only 30 Senators and 17 are required for a quorum. So, the absence of even a small number of Senators can have an effect on decisions.

And then there is the constitution. As reported in a previous post, constitutional amendments were passed a couple of weeks ago. However, which ones? The official version of Haiti’s constitution is the one that I linked to here. However, the notion that these were not the amendments that were actually passed refuses to go away. More than that, it seems as if there are major differences between the different versions of the amendments. For example, Radio Kiskeya reports that there seems to be an issue of whether the PM’s nomination is ratified solely by the Chamber of Deputies or by both houses of the legislature. This is a major difference that has an immediate effect. It is unclear to me whether the debate about which version of the amendments was passed is a purely partisan political issue, or whether it is the result of a real procedural confusion. All the same, it is remarkable that decision makers are unclear as to which version of the constitution they are governed by.

Finally, there is the seemingly eternal issue of whether the president’s nominee for the prime ministership will be ratified. President Martely has few partisan supporters in the legislature. By far the biggest block is a group of supporters that is loyal to former President Préval. President Martely has nominated an independent figure as PM. To the best of my knowledge the government as a whole has not been named. The share of the government pie is usually part of the political deal that leads to the ratification. Anyway, Radio Kiskeya reports that President Préval has given the go-ahead for his supporters to let the PM form a government. However, the leader of Préval’s supporters in the Chamber is saying that they need to be part of the government. What we seem to have is a president in a premier-presidential system (where the PM is responsible solely to the legislature) trying to operate like a president in a president-parliamentary system (where the PM is responsible to the president too). As we know, in the latter presidents try to avoid cohabitation. They try to appoint independent PMs and ministers and govern against the legislature. This seems to be what President Martely is doing. Given he is so weak, the logic of the system is that he should form a cohabitation government, or at least a coalition government with a divided executive. He would have to govern in tandem with his opponents, but at least he would maximise the chances of the government being durable. As it stands, even if a deal is reached, which it has to be for the PM to be approved, the chances are that it will not last. When the next crisis comes, as it surely will, the legislature will vote down the government because it feels that it does not have a true stake in the system. This is a recipe for more instability and more confusion.

The new president of Haiti, Michel Martelly, has formally designated his first prime minister. He is Daniel Gérard Rouzier. M. Rouzier does not seem to have a background in party politics. He is a businessman.

The appointment must now be approved by both chambers of parliament. Previously, this has proven difficult. There was an 18-month period from 1997-1997 when there was no PM because no nominee gained approval. Equally, in 2008 President Préval had considerable difficulty having his nominee approved.

According to both the Wikipedia page and the page of the Haitian parliament, former Président Préval’s INITE party has 33 of the 100 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. However, according to Le Matin, there is a so-called Groupe des parlementaires pour le renouveau (GPR) that has the support of a total of 52 deputies, including the INITE deputies. So, this group seems to have a majority, though it is difficult to know how cohesive it is likely to be. The situation in the Senate is beyond my comprehension. The Senate’s own webpage lists 37 senators, yet, as far as I can tell, the constitution only allows 30. Anyway, the aforementioned article, which is certainly based on better information than I have, states that the GPR has the support of 16 senators, again giving it a majority there too, but one short of a quorum that is required for a final decision.

Given the PM-designate has to be approved personally by both houses and then the government’s programme has to be approved by both houses too and given too that President Martelly is, in theory, opposed to INITE and, presumably, the GPR, then the process of designating M. Rouzier is likely to be difficult.

The 1987 Constitution of Haiti has been amended. In fact, parliament has just voted a long list of amendments. The amendments are available here in French. They are taken from the Haitian official journal, Le Moniteur.

The amendment process was chaotic. The process had to be completed by 13th May, the last day of president Préval’s term of office, otherwise there could be no changes until 2015. There was a debate on 8th and 9th May. In the end, the bill was finally passed just before midnight on the 13th.

According to reports, the debate was extremely fierce. In particular, an amendment was introduced at the very end and in somewhat strange circumstances which would have allowed the president to serve for two terms. However, the proposal was defeated.

The amendments make it slightly more difficult for the parliament to dismiss the government. However, the PM still needs the approval of parliament to be appointed. There are plenty of other changes including a 30% quota of female candidates for political parties.

There are reports that the amendments will not be published in Creole. This would give Haiti two constitutions.

The result of the legislative election in Haiti has finally been announced. The first round was held on 28 November. The second round was held on 20 March.

The Electoral Commission has posted the results in the individual constituencies. Some kind person has aggregated them on Wikipedia. Here is the screenshot.

Bear in mind that the newly elected president, Michel Martely, represents the Repons Peyisan group. So, he has little formal support in the legislature, though no doubt some of the other groups will work with him.

President Martely has criticised the results, claiming that the Electoral Commission had rigged the process to allow INITE, former President Préval’s party, to win the most seats, even though they were not ahead at the first ballot. Kiskeya is reporting that there has been rioting in response the formal announcement of the results.

The second round of the presidential election in Haiti was held on 20 March. The preliminary result has now been announced by the Electoral Commission. It is as follows:

Michel Martely, 67.6%
Mirlande Manigat, 31.7%

Even though these are the preliminary figures, Ms Manigat has conceded defeat.

Michel Martely will take office on 14 May. He does not have a background in politics. Formally, he represented the Repons Peyisan party, but this is a new movement that lacked any institutionalised organisation. He was popular among the young population, not least because he was a singer.

The process of naming a PM and having him/approved will now begin. Expect further posts!

I have posted on the recent Haitian election previously, but those posts can, in effect, be disregarded, so much has the situation changed.

Elections were held for the presidency, the whole of the Chamber of Deputies and a part of the Senate. The election was held on the basis of a two-round system.

As reported previously, the preliminary results from the Electoral Commission for the presidential election presented the following figures for the top three candidates:

Mirlande Manigat
(Rassemblement des Démocrates Nationaux Progressistes, RDNP)

Jude Célestin
(Lespwa/INITE)

Michel Martelly
(Repons Peyisan)

However, the result was highly contested. Crucially, an official report on the election by the Organisation of American States presented different figures, crucially reversing the order of the second and third candidates:

Mirlande Manigat (RDNP), 31.6%
Michel Martelly (Repons Peyisan), 22.2%
Jude Célestin (Lespwa/INITE), 21.9%

The ‘definitive’ results of the Haitian Electoral Commission were presented on 3 February and they effectively endorsed the new result, though not all members of the Commission agreed to sign off the new results.

As far as I understand it, President Préval came under pressure, notably from the US, to relinquish support for M. Célestin, who was representing the president’s own party. The US reportedly threatened to remove aid from the country, leaving both the president and then M. Célestin with little option but to withdraw, thus allowing the Commission to announce ‘definitive’ results.

It now seems as if the reconstituted second round of the election will take place on 20 March.

In the meantime, there is also a little more information about the legislative election. The IPU is reporting that 18 seats for the Chamber of Deputies were won at the first ballot. Lespwa/INITE won 10 of these seats. The other 80 seats will be filled at the second ballot.

For the Senate, the IPU reports that only two of the 11 seats were filled.

The first round of the legislative election in Haiti was held on 28 November. The results have been extremely difficult to obtain. Finally, the preliminary figures have been made public. However, they have only been announced for each constituency. No overall figures have been provided.

Anyway, the results of the election for the Chamber of Deputies are available here. The results of the election for the Senate are available here.

The bottom line is that both chambers will be very fragmented. Whoever is elected president at the upcoming second ballot will find it difficult to generate a stable majority.