In a previous post I said that I would not report on Niger again unless there was a possibility that the country would return to semi-presidentialism. Well, it is possible that that day has come a little closer.

There has been a coup in Niamey against President Tandja. Yesterday morning, heavy gunfire was heard and the French Embassy told French nationals to remain indoors.

The coup occurred during an extraordinary meeting of the Council of Ministers. Therefore, all members of the government were present in the presidential palace. President Tandja was ‘taken away’ by the coup leaders. There are reports that ministers are still being held in the presidential palace.

The coup has been led by three generals who have announced that the government has been dissolved. They have set up what they call the ‘Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy’.

Over and above the morality of any coup, this one, so far and it is still very early on, has the hallmarks of one that aims to restore democracy. This is not least because there have been reports for a couple of months of rumblings within the army against President Tandja’s constitutional and political decisions. Therefore, whatever about any other motives, it does seem to have a political underpinning.

Unsurprisingly, President Tandja’s referendum on his proposed new constitution was overwhelmingly passed on 4 August. Therefore, Niger is no longer semi-presidential.

According to Le Sahel, the Commission électorale nationale indépendante (CENI) announced the following results:

The Constitutional Court, which was only recently reconstituted by President Tandja, has approved the result.

In the end, the victory was perhaps greater than expected, as Jeune Afrique implies. Legislative elections are set for 20 August and the presidential election for 14 November.

Given Niger is no longer semi-presidential, I will no longer post about it, except in the context of a possible return to semi-presidentialism. As it stands, this is unlikely because the opposition is so weak. However, President Tandja will need to maintain the support of the military. A coup could change the situation.

The always excellent La Constitution en Afrique blog has published the text of the proposed new constitution in Niger. It is only available in French.

The constitution is presidential. Apart from removing term limits, which is the main point of the reform in one sense, the constitution states that the president is the sole source of executive power and that the prime minister and government are responsible to the president (Art 48). At no point is the government made responsible to the legislature. The nearest we get to any such responsibility is the legislature’s ability to interpellate the prime minister or any other member of government “by way of a request” (Art. 85). This is slightly unusual terminology for a francophone constitution, but, to me, it is a way of emphasising that the legislature cannot legally bring down the government collectively.

A referendum on the constitution will be held on 4 August.

There is considerable international pressure against the proposed change. Also, a general strike was meant to be held today, but it was outlawed by the courts.

Earlier this month the president dissolved the Constitutional Court, which had ruled against him, and then appointed a new Court!

The proposed constitution states that the incumbent president will remain in power until elections in 2012 (Art. 148). Legislative elections will be held no later than October 2009 (Art. 149).

President Mamadou Tandja of Niger has invoked Article 53 of the 1999 Constitution and assumed emergency powers.

He made the announcement in a message to the nation last Friday.

The announcement raises some interesting constitutional issues. Art. 53 states; “If the National Assembly is not in session, it shall reconvene without need of sanction … In no case shall the National Assembly be dissolved during the exercise of exceptional powers. The National Assembly shall assess by an absolute majority of its members the duration of the exercise of exceptional powers and shall terminate it in case of abuse.”

The crisis in Niger has been provoked at least in part by the President’s inability to control the legislature. However, this article makes it clear that the legislature can terminate the powers if it wishes – a claim of abuse can always be generated. So, this decision may put the president and the Assembly on a collision course. Also, previously the President had dissolved the Assembly and called elections. However, the Article makes it clear that the Assembly must convene. Can a dissolved Assembly convene? If a dissolved Assembly convenes, is it still dissolved? These points are certainly justiciable and, in recent days, the Constitutional Court has refused to endorse the President’s actions. Indeed, in various African press articles, the Nigerien Constitution Council is being praised for standing up to the president.

The opposition is calling the announcement a coup d’état and, according to Jeune Afrique, has called on the army to disobey President Tandja.

It is worth noting that on Thursday the CDS party withdrew from the governing coalition. The CDS is the party of the former president, Mahamane Ousmane, who was overthrown in the coup in 1996. He was also an ally of President Tandja at the 1999 and 2004 presidential elections and was a real help in allowing the election of President Tandja. So, the decision to withdraw from the government is another sign of how few friends President Tandja has left.

Finally, it is also worth noting that the president’s party, the MNSD, which is the largest party in the country, split last week. Former prime minister, Hama Amadou, left to create his own party, the Mouvement Démocratique Nigérien pour une Fédération Africaine (MODENE/FALUMANA AFRICA). Hama Amadou was a major figure within the MNSD, but his new party does not seem to include many other key figures at present.

President Mamadou Tandja of Niger appears to have climbed down in his battle with the other institutions in the state.

In previous posts (below) I outlined how he wanted to introduce a new constitution whose sole aim, ostensibly, was to allow him to stand for a third term later this year, despite a very clear constitutional interdiction to all ow him to do so.

While there was clearly some support for President Tandja’s reform, there was also considerable opposition. However, up to this point, when faced with opposition the president had tried to force through the reform. For example, when there was dissent within parliament, he dissolved parliament.

In the last ten days or so President Tandja’s situation deteriorated markedly. For example, on 12 June the Constitutional Court declared that the president’s proposed referendum on the new constitution would be unconstitutional and struck down the presidential decree that had set the referendum. Following that decision, the Commission électorale nationale indépendante (Ceni) announced that it would not hold the referendum under its auspices. This was a major blow. Now, Allafrica.com is now reporting that on Friday the Council of the Republic has defied the president. This is very significant because Art. 56 of the 1999 constitution states that the Council is only convened when “the regular functioning of the public powers are seriously threatened”. Apparently, President Tandja wanted to push through the reform (presumably anyway, the article is unclear) by decree. The Council refused to agree to the proposal. The prime minister and others seemingly declared that they were not able to make a decision of the matter.

Anyway, now the report suggests that President Tandja has signed the decree naming a date for legislative elections (20 August).

The tone of various reports suggests that President Tandja has utterly capitulated. Obviously I am cynical (for those who know me, it goes without saying), but I can’t help thinking that this isn’t the end of the affair.

Anyway, assuming the reports are correct, this means that Niger will remain semi-presidential and that democracy (even of the unconsolidated, partial sort) emerges victorious.

You might wish to check for updates on La Constitution en Afrique site.

The situation in Niger is hotting up. As posted previously, President Mamadou Tandja announced that he would hold a referendum on a new constitution that would allow him to stand again for election. Indeed, this seemed to be whole purpose of the initiative.

On Monday the Constitutional Court of Niger declared that the president’s initiative would be unconstitutional. Jeune Afrique reports that the decision was based on the Court’s interpretation of Art. 49 of the constitution. This Article states that the president can submit any text to the people with the exception of any revision that is governed by Title XII of the constitution. As reported in the previous post, Title XII expressly forbids any amendment of Art. 36, one element of which relates to term limits. Slightly confusingly, Jeune Afrique reports the Court as saying that Art. 49 does not allow the president to propose a referendum on something that will affect the foundation of the constitution. This is not what Art. 49 states. Presumably, details will become available fairly soon.

In any case, smarting at the Court’s decision, the president has taken the opportunity to dissolve parliament. The legislature’s term is nearly up anyway. Elections were scheduled for late this year. Apparently, the Court was asked to make a ruling by a group of deputies. This, and presumably the fear that the legislature might not approve the president’s initiative, may explain why the Assembly has been dissolved. On 14 May the Convention démocratique et sociale (CDS) led by former president, Mahamane Ousmane, came out against the reform. The CDS is part of the governing coalition and has 22/113 seats in the Assembly.

In an interview to French news services, Jeune Afrique reports that President Mamadou Tandja has announced that he envisages a referendum later in the year to abolish the current two-term presidential limit.

President Tandja’s second term expires in December this year. Presidential and legislative elections are due to be held at that time, though no date has yet been fixed.

However, the situation is potentially more complex than it first appears. Art. 136 of the 1999 Nigerien constitution states that Art. 36 of the constitution cannot be the object of a constitutional revision. In turn, Art. 36 is the one that regulates the election and that term-limits the president.

This restriction explains why the government spokesperson announced that President Tandja would present a whole new constitution for approval at the referendum. The referendum would “open up the way for Niger’s 6th Republic”, said the government spokesperson.

Those in favour of the end of term limits are called ‘tazartchistes’ after the word ‘tazartché’, the Hausa word for ‘prolongation’.

Niger has the dubious record of being the only country where democracy has collapsed in the middle of a period of cohabitation. (See previous cohabitation post). However, after the passage of the 1999 constitution and the return of civilian rule it has been classed as partly free or democratising. Given the ending of term limits is becoming a good proxy for the end of democracy, it can only be hoped that Niger will not collapse again.

Whether or not a president accepts terms limits is rapidly becoming a good proxy for a functioning democracy. Given the countries last year that passed constitutional amendments so as to allow the incumbent to remain in office (Algeria, Azerbaijan, Cameroon), the democratic trend seems to be downward. However, perhaps Niger is about to prove otherwise.

As reported in a previous post, President Tandja is term limited. While there have been calls for him to stand again, jeuneafrique is reporting that the political class is generally opposed to a new term.

Specifically, the different elements of the system seem to be making hay from the difficulties within President Tandja’s MNSD party to call for elections under the existing provision. For example, former president, Mahamane Ousmane, of the CDS, a government ally, has come out against a new presidential term. Other government allies have done the same.

Art. 135 of the 1999 Constitution makes constitutional reform quite difficult. If 4/5ths of National Assembly members vote for an amendment, then it is automatically passed. However, if ‘only’ 3/4 vote for it, then the proposal must go to a referendum. Below that figure, then the reform fails. In the current circumstances, any reform is unlikely to win 3/4, never mind 4/5 support in the Assembly.

I should have posted about Niger before now, but things are starting to come to a head.

The basic problem is that former PM, Hama Amadou, was arrested in June 2008 on charges of corruption after having his immunity lifted by the Assembly. For his supporters, this was a blatant attempt to stop him from standing at the 2009 presidential election, which is scheduled for November.

Amadou was PM from 1995-96 when he and the president were ousted in a coup during a period of cohabitation. Following the restoration of democracy and the election of Mamadou Tandja as President in 1999, Amadou was again appointed as PM and served in office until June 2007 when he was brought down by a vote of no-confidence. He retained the support of the largest party (which is his party and the president’s party), the MNSD, but the other coalition party, the CDS, joined the opposition and voted down the government. He was replaced as PM by Seyni Oumarou. A year later, Amadou found himself in jail where he still resides.

The problem now seems to be that the MNSD is increasingly split between those who support President Tandja and PM Oumarou and those whose loyalties lie with former PM Amadou. In November 2008 Oumarou reportedly assumed the post of interim president of the MNSD, replacing Amadou. However, this decision is contested by Amadou’s supporters.

Now, jeuneafrique reports that elements of the MNSD party have demanded that President Tandja withdraw his confidence from PM Oumarou. Niger has a premier-presidential form of semi-presidentialism, so the president cannot dismiss the PM. Consequently, one of MNSD dissidents called, in effect, for parliament to dismiss PM Oumarou. (Given they are from the same party, this is a fairly radical rupture of party unity).

Another complicating factor is that President Tandja is term limited. This is, arguably, one reason why Amadou’s opponent want him out of the way. However, in a scenario reminiscent of recent events in Cameroon, Algeria and Azerbaijan, there is a movement to try to pass a constitutional amendment with a view to ending presidential term limit. The Constitution en Afrique blog recently drew my attention to it.

All in all, things are hotting up in Niger. That said, one really interesting element of the report in jeuneafrique is the idea that the competing parties may go to the courts to resolve the issue. This would be a welcome step in the context of Niger’s post-independence military history.