Well, I did predict a reshuffle in France after the European election. I just expected the PM to be one of those who would be a victim of it. Not so. François Fillon remains as PM at the head of a government with quite a few new faces and some changes of portfolio.

The appointment of Frédéric Mitterrand, nephew of the late president, as Minister of Culture is the one that has made the most headlines. Mitterrand openly supported right-wing candidates at the last two presidential elections. So, this is not so much a case of trying to poach votes from the socialists. It is more a sign that Sarkozy is trying to portray his government as being one that is open to civil society.

Politically, more important is the appointment of Michel Mercier, who was formerly a member of the centre-right MoDem party and whose leader, François Bayrou, is a certain presidential candidate in 2012. With Mercier’s appointment, Sarkozy is definitely trying to nibble away at Bayrou’s support. This makes good political sense. Arguably, Sarkozy is more likely to lose the 2012 election to Bayrou rather than anyone else. As things stand, even if the socialists got through to the second round, they would be roundly defeated. However, if Bayrou won through, then the anti-Sarkozy vote (including the socialists) would all support Bayrou and this might pose a real threat to the president.

The UMP’s somewhat better-than-expected showing at the EP election is probably the reason for Fillon being kept on. However, for me, reading the coverage of the reshuffle in the French newspapers, the most notable thing was the almost total absence of any reference to Fillon. The reshuffle was a purely presidential affair. In one sense, this is not surprising or without precedent in France, but the absence of any seeming intervention by Fillon was noticeable.