The accusations against Dominique Strauss-Kahn are making headline news around the world. Without either prejudging him or trivialising the very serious accusations that have been made against him, here are some thoughts on what the situation means for next year’s French presidential election.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) has consistently been the most popular contender for the Socialist party’s (PS) presidential nomination. He had not formally declared he was going to run for the nomination, but he did in 2007 and it was almost certain that he would again this time. In 2007 he did poorly, but this time he seemed well placed. The other main contender is François Hollande, a former party leader and ex-husband of the party 2007 candidate, Ségolène Royal. For her part, Ségolène Royal may also wish to try her hand again. Another possible contender is the current party leader, Martine Aubry, who is the daughter of Jacques Delors. However, it is likely that she would not have stood if DSK was a candidate. There will be a primary to choose the party’s nominee in October.

For the PS, the stakes are very high. The opinion polls have been showing that just about any of the party’s candidate will go through to the second ballot of the presidential election. If DSK was the candidate, then he would win against any opponent. However, the same is not necessarily true of other potential PS candidates if the other second-ballot contender was from the moderate right. They are only pretty much guaranteed to win if the other second-ballot contender was from the extreme right National Front (FN).

President Sarkozy is still the best placed moderate right contender. However, polls have been showing that he might not qualify for the second ballot and that the extreme right candidate, Marine Le Pen, the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, might well go through.

So, if we assume that DSK is now out of the frame, then the chances of the PS winning have decreased. They have to hope that the FN candidate beats all of the other right-wing candidates and goes through to the second ballot. If Sarkozy were to win through, then the PS may well lose. Equally, if the PS is damaged by the whole DSK situation, then there is the possibility that its candidate may not win through to the second ballot.

This means that Sarkozy is potentially the big winner from the events of the last couple of days. That said, Sarkozy is not very popular. He also faces a potentially difficult challenge from a popular centrist figure, Jean-Louis Borloo. All the same, there is the real possibility that the moderate right will field a number of candidates. If so, then the moderate right vote will be dispersed, making it more difficult for any of them to get through to the second ballot.

The bottom line is that there is all to play for. I am tweeting the French presidential election. So, if you want to follow events there, then please feel free to follow me on Twitter @robertelgie