Guinea-Bissau – Election result

In Guinea-Bissau parliamentary elections took place on Sunday 16 November. The first results have just been made available. They show a turnout of 82% and a comfortable majority for the PAIGC.

Reporting the Comissão Nacional de Eleições, Bissau Digital notes that the PAIGC has 67 seats, the PRS of former president Kumba Yalá (now Mohamed Ialá Embaló) won 28 seats, the PRID of former prime minister and close presidential ally Aristides Gomes won 3 seats, while the AD and PND parties will win one seat each.

The number of votes for all the parties is provided at agenciabissau.com. Wikipedia has picked up these results and turned them into percentages, but currently there are mistakes, particularly in the date of the election and the number of seats awarded to the PRS.

The president, João Bernardo “Nino” Vieira, will be in a tricky position. He was expelled from the PAIGC in 1999 and won the 2005 presidential election standing as an independent against the PAIGC candidate. He has had difficulty governing since then. In August he appointed Carlos Correia from the PAIGC as prime minister. The PRID party was, in effect, a vehicle for the president at the legislative election, but it has failed to make a breakthrough. However, the president has also managed to win support from dissidents within the PAIGC.

Given Vieira is an independent, I do not class Guinea-Bissau as a case of cohabitation, but it is clear that most of the government is not to the president’s liking. The results may perhaps pave the way for the president’s formal reconciliation with the PAIGC, though he may think that he will remain enough personal popularity to allow him to maintain his position as an independent and stand a chance of being re-elected. Alternatively, he may try to split the PAIGC and win party support that way, but this strategy is likely to be more difficult now after the PAIGC’s big victory.

In any case, it is likely that even if the prime minister remains in place, which would be logical as he is from the PAIGC, the governing coalition may change. In August it comprised the PAIGC, some Vieira supporters from the PAIGC, five ministers from the PRS and one each from PRID and APU.

All international observers seemed very pleased with the electoral process. There were favourable reports from the Missão de Observação Eleitoral Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa.
The EU was also satisfied with the election.

There was some post-election drama. The president’s house was attacked by members of the armed forces allegedly. However, the armed forces have since stated their loyalty to the president. (See Bissau Digital).

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