In Romania the legislature has failed to approve the government of prospective prime minister Lucian Croitoru. The vote was 189 in favour (all PDL deputies, plus a few associated) and 236 against (the PDL’s former coalition partner, the PSD, the PNL (Liberals) and the Hungarian minority party, the UDMR).

Recall that the PDL/PSD coalition collapsed a couple of weeks ago when the PSD withdrew. The President then reappointed the Prime Minister, Emil Boc (the Boc II government) as a minority PDL (Democrats) government. The legislature then voted no-confidence in Boc II.

Since then, the search for a new government has been ongoing. President Băsescu proposed another minority PDL government, this time led by Lucian Croitoru, but the legislature has now failed to approve this government. Yesterday’s vote came as no surprise.

The problem is that President Băsescu’s PDL party is now isolated in the legislature and the opposition is unwilling to accept a PDL minority government or to form a coalition with the PDL, even if the president wanted one. By the same token, President Băsescu is unwilling to propose the PNL candidate for prime minister, Klaus Johannis. So, there is a stalemate.

In the meantime, the Boc II government is continuing on an interim basis. The next step is for the president to nominate another prime minister candidate. Given the presidential election is less than three weeks away, it is unlikely that any government will be approved before then, unless the PDL and the PNL can arrive at a deal. President Băsescu has said that he would be willing to accept such a coalition but that the PDL should have the premiership.

President Băsescu cannot dissolve the assembly until after the presidential election, assuming he is returned. In that regard, Bucharest Herald reports a very recent CCSB opinion poll, which indicates the following first round vote:

Băsescu (PDL) – 34 per cent
Geoana (PSD) – 28 per cent
Antonescu (PNL) – 19 per cent
Oprescu (ind.) – 12 per cent
Vadim Tudor (PRM – Greater Romania Party) – 4 per cent
Hunor (UDMR) – 4 per cent
Becali (PNG-CD – New Generation Party-Christian Democrat) – 1 per cent

However, at the second round Băsescu is beaten by any candidate: Geoana (45-55 per cent) Antonescu (47-53 per cent) Oprescu (48-52 per cent).

A recent INSOMAR poll also shows Geoana beating Băsescu at the second ballot.

So, there is little incentive at the moment for the opposition to vote in a new government with any PDL component. Therefore, the stand-off is likely to last until after the presidential election. Ironically, this is the first time that the presidential election has not coincided with legislative elections. This means there is the potential for the crisis to continue after the second round of the presidential election on 6 December.

To add insult to injury, yesterday was President Băsescu’s birthday!