Russia – Succession speculation

According to RFE/RL on 11 November Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, announced that he was proposing legislation that would extend the president’s term from four to six years. He also proposed extending the Duma’s term from four to five years.

This announcement has reignited speculation about the possibility of Medvedev stepping down and Putin reassuming the presidency, presumably via a new election following a constitutional amendment. In that event, he would be in a position to hold office for 12 years.

The speculation is rife this time for two reasons. Firstly, the change in the length of the mandate might give Medvedev an excuse to call a new presidential election. He would then be free not to stand and let Putin contest the election. Secondly, the reform proposal dates back to Putin’s time as president. Therefore, it is seen as Putin’s reform rather than Medvedev’s.

More generally, the financial crisis has led some newspapers to criticise Putin as prime minister. If Putin feels that his authority is being undermined, then he may wish to reassert it by reassuming the presidency and this may be a convenient way to do so.

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