The Eurasia Daily Monitor has published a speculative but interesting article about the shape of executive politics in Russia in the years to come.

The speculation that outgoing president, Vladimir Putin, will be able to wield considerable power as PM, assuming he is nominated to that position by incoming President Dmitry Medvedev, is not new. However, the article reports an idea that is being floated whereby President Medvedev will resign after less than two years in office, thus forcing a new presidential election. At the election, Putin would be elected and there would be a return to the status quo ante.

One of the reasons why this idea is being given some credence is that Putin recently stated that there should be a longer interval between presidential and parliamentary elections. If presidential elections were to be held in 2009, then there would be a two-year gap between that election and the next scheduled parliamentary election in 2011 and then a further two-year gap to the 2013 presidential election. This would space out the elections more evenly. Currently, there is quite a long gap until the next parliamentary election in late 2011 with the next presidential election following on soon after in early 2012.

If President Medvedev were to resign early, then this would avoid having to change the constitution to bring about this situation.