The phony war in Ukraine has finally come to an end as the governing coalition has been dissolved. According to the Constitution, there are now 30 days for a new government to be formed, otherwise an election can be called. The most likely coalition is between former Prime Minister Tymoshenko’s bloc and the Russia-focused Party of the Regions.

The next presidential election is due to be held in October 2009. Prime Minister Tymoshenko is likely to want to stand. Currently, President Yushchenko is extremely unpopular and his chances of being re-elected are slim. However, he is unlikely to step down. In addition, Viktor Yanukovych, the leader of the Party of the Regions, will also want to stand. The small number of coalition options and the potential for ongoing competition between the three leaders for the next year of more is likely to mean a period of instability even if parliament is dissolved.