Recently I speculated whether Zimbabwe will become the next country to adopt semi-presidentialism. In the last week or so, it has consistently appeared that semi-presidentialism is at the heart of any deal between President Mugabe and the leader of the opposition, Morgan Tsvangirai. However, the deal has proved elusive and the most recent reports suggest that there are still major issues to resolve.

The deal seems to be premised on the notion that Mugabe will remain as president, while Tsvangirai will take up a newly created post of prime minister. In the context of this blog, I have not been able to determine whether the position would be responsible to the legislature, but it makes sense that it would be as the opposition has a majority there. In other words, assuming the opposition remains united (and this has proven difficult to achieve already), then Tsvangirai’s position would be safe.

As in Kenya, one of the sticking points has been whether or not the prime ministership will be an ‘executive’ institution. In other words, what will be the balance of power between the president and prime minister. The most recent report from All Africa suggests that the issue of who will control the cabinet is the sticking point. In particular, even though a cabinet that includes both ZANU-PF and MDC representatives seems to have been agreed, the issue of whether the president can appoint and dismiss ministers has yet to be resolved.

In an e-mail communication, John Power asked whether there was any information about who was advising the parties about semi-presidentialism. I have absolutely no information on this subject. Please leave a comment or send me an e-mail if you do have any idea. My guess is that this is a purely political deal and that the ins-and-outs of whether semi-presidentialism is a good system or not have not been systematically addressed.

Anyway, having just lost Mauritania, there is still the slim possibility that we may gain Zimbabwe.