Madagascar – Political accord likely

United Nations mediators seems to have been able to come up with at least a short-term solution to the political crisis in Madagascar.

Les Nouvelles reports that four major actors in the country, including President Ravalomanana’s TiM party as well as Andry Rajoelina’s supporters, have agreed in principle a way out of the country’s crisis.

A key element of the apparent agreement, which has not yet been made public, is Article 3. This Article is supposed to state that no former president will be eligible to stand at the next presidential election, which seems to be planned for 2010. This Article would not only interdict Ravalomanana and Rajoelina, but also two former presidents, Didier Ratsiraka and Albert Zafy, both of whom had very controversial presidencies and who remain not insignificant figures, particularly Ratsiraka.

In a clarification on Thursday, L’Express de Madagascar reports Rajoelina as saying that he has not agreed not to stand, only that he will not stand if all the others agree not to stand and he indicates that all of the other presidents have not yet signed the agreement. So, there is still some question as to whether the accord will be finalised.

Prior to any election, there is still promised to be a new constitution. Les Nouvelles reports that a new constitution will be presented to a national conference next month. No draft of the constitution has yet emerged to the best of my knowledge.

There is a nice review of the (il)legality of the Rajoelina transition in the La Constitution en Afrique blog.

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