In Georgia the parliament has just passed a constitutional amendment that will allow local elections to be held before 1 June this year. It escapes me why a constitutional amendment was needed, but apparently it was. That said, there does not seem to be a great deal about local government in the constitution up to this point. (See here for the 2006 amended version).

It now seems certain that local elections will be held on 30 May. The main election at this time will for the mayor of Tbilisi. Previously, the President of the Republic appointed the mayor. The direct election of the mayor Of Tbilisi has been a fractious political issue over the last while. The legal situation now is that the candidate who wins a plurality of votes so long as not less than 30 per cent of the electorate has voted will be deemed elected. The opposition to President Mikheil Saakashvili has complained that this process virtually guarantees the election of a pro-presidential mayor, i.e., the president’s party is sufficiently strong and the opposition sufficiently disunited that a relatively low threshold of this sort will favour the president’s candidate.

Georgia Times reports that Prime Minister Nika Gilauri has sacked the Minister of Economy Lasha Zhvania. Yes, Prime Minister Gilauri has sacked the Minister of Economy. Given President Saakashvili is accused of acting quasi-autocratically, and given that there has been a succession of weak heads of government since the post was created in 2004, this seems like an unusual action, and Georgia Times notes the same. (Zhvania was the eighth Minister of Economy since 2004!)

Obviously, there is a back story. Civil.ge reports that a series of stories about disagreements between the PM and the Minister of Economy were recently aired on Imedi TV. This station is owned by a long-time ally of President Saakashvili. So, undoubtedly the President supported the decision, whether or not he initiated it.

In addition, the rift between the PM and the Minister of Economy is said to reflect a more general divide between ‘liberals’ and ‘regulators’. The latter are deemed to be those who support moves to align Georgia with the EU. Minister Zhvania was seen as a ‘regulator’. Given Saakashvili needs EU support (or at least does not want to alienate it), then it makes sense that he did not want to be seen to be behind the dismissal.

In another twist, the godfather of former Minister Zhvania’s son is Irakli Alasania of the opposition Our Georgia-Free Democrats party. In a news conference, Zhvania denied that he was going to join the opposition or that this relationship had anything to do with the dismissal. However, he also used the occasion to attack the PM.

All in all, apart from the decision itself, this is a nice case of the whole host of issues that can lie behind a simple headline.

Following the clashes between in Tbilisi last week there have been talks between President Saakashvili and opposition leaders.

RFE/RL reports that the meeting took place on Monday. Prior to the meeting the opposition issued a five-point memorandum with their demands. They were: constitutional amendments to weaken the president and strengthen parliament; the reorganization of the Interior Ministry; amendments to the electoral law; the appointment of a new central and local election commissions; and an end to censorship of the media.

At the meeting President Saakashvili is reported by Civil.ge to have proposed setting up a commission to work on a constitutional reform to create “balanced system, in which there will be place for both the strong president and the strong parliament.”

The next day Civil.ge reported Gigi Ugulava, the mayor of Tbilisi and close ally of President Saakashvili, as saying the following: “What we offer them [the opposition] is a commission on constitutional reform, chaired by an opposition representative; that means that new constitution will be tabled in the shortest timeframe. This new constitution will significantly increase powers of the parliament at the expanse of the presidential powers … The government will be composed by political forces, which will win in parliamentary [elections] and president will not participate in this process.”

There is a rumour that President Saakashvili may indeed be willing to do a deal that will weaken the president and increase the power of the prime minister. To understand why, context is important. Recall that Saakashvili is term-limited and young. On the assumption that politically he cannot scrap term-limits and that he is not about to retire from politics, then the logic of the rumour is that the constitution would be amended to strengthen the government at the expense of the president and that Saakashvili would then assume the role of prime minister at the end of his current presidential term. This sounds like a Russian solution! Anyway, there is at least the prospect of constitutional reform in the fairly near future.

In Georgia there was a mutiny on Tuesday at a military base near Tbilisi. Apparently, a whole tank battalion mutinied, though RFE/RL reports that the situation is now under control. President Saakashvili went to the base to talk to the rebel forces.

The Georgian administration blames the Russians for stirring up trouble prior to the NATO military exercises that are due to start this week. There is also the claim that this was the beginning of a coup.

In the meantime, the protests against the government are still ongoing. Eurasianet points out that, contrary to events in 2007, the government had not provoked the demonstrators. There were many protests, but all were peaceful and all were peacefully handled. However, yesterday, RFE/RL reports that there were clashes between the police and the opposition in Tbilisi and that the opposition leader had been detained.

There is an overview of recent events in Central-Asia Caucasus Analyst.

In Georgia the opposition has started a period of protest to try to force President Saakashvili from power.

On 9 April RFE/RL reports that more than 50,000 people demonstrated demanding the president’s resignation, though this was apparently somewhat fewer than had been hoped or expected. They demanded that the president resign within 24 hours, but, unsurprisingly, this request was rejected.

This protest is gaining world attention partly because it is meant to resemble the way in which Saakashvili himself came to power and also because Georgia is still in the headlines after the war last year. The opposition to President Saakashvili seems to come from people who were disenchanted with him prior to his re-election last year and from people who blame him for events (or at least the management of them) surrounding last year’s war.

Eurasianet reports that the protestors have erected barricades, but that fewer people were on the streets now than on the first day of the protest.

Georgia has a new prime minister. Grigol Mgaloblishvili resigned on 31 January. Eurasia Insight reports that he cited health problems as the reason for his departure. Apparently, he has been receiving treatment in Germany. In a televised address President Mikheil Saakashvili said that “The country needs a cabinet and a prime minister capable of working round-the-clock”. There had been reports of problems between the president and PM.

Mgaloblishvili was appointed on 1 November 2008. There was a post here. Mgaloblishvili has been replaced by the former Finance Minister Nika Gilauri. Gilauri is the fifth prime minister since President Saakashvili came to power in January 2004.

A few days before Mgaloblishvili’s departure there were quite large demonstrations by the opposition calling for Saakashvili’s departure. Given the president was only re-elected in January last year, there is little chance of this, unless people power has its way.

Freedom House stripped Georgia of its status as an electoral democracy in its 2009 report. Last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections were not considered free and fair.

In Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili has appointed a new prime minister. RFE/RL reports that the new PM is Grigol Mgaloblishvili. He replaces Lado Gurgenidze who was in office for less than a year. The president and the former PM are reported as saying that the move was “a joint, consensual decision”, though President Saakashvili did not initially give a reason for the decision when it was announced on Monday night. This led to some speculation that the president had sacked the PM. Currently, Georgia, like other places, is under considerable financial stress. In addition, the president continues to be the subject of criticism from the opposition who believe that the decision to send troops to South Ossetia was flawed. President Saakashvili has stated that the country needs “new energy” to face the current challenges and has named Prime Minister Mgaloblishvili, a 35-year old former diplomat, in this context.

Eurasia Insight reports that the early returns from Georgia suggest that President Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) may win a two-thirds majority in parliament.

The returns cover about two-thirds of all polling station and they suggest that the UNM won 58.8% of the proportional vote. Given half of Georgia’s 150-seat parliament is elected through a single-member plurality system and given the UNM’s support seems to be fairly constant across the country with the exception of Tbilisi, this should mean that the party picks up the vast majority of those seats, and, of course, it will do well in the PR element of the election too.

The nine-party United Opposition Movement is reported to have won about 18.8%, the new Christian Democratic party is reported at 8.5% and the Labor Party at 7.4%. Another party, the Republicans does not look as if it will pass the 5% threshold necessary for representation, though it may win a handful of single-member seats.

The opposition argues that the election was not conducted fairly and contests the results. Eurasia Insight reports that International electoral observers have assessed the voting process as good or very good at 92% of the 1,500 polling stations visited. However, the vote count is usually the most contested process in Georgia and 22% of the international observers surveyed found polling stations’ vote count to be bad or very bad. There had been fears of mass protests against the results, but these did not materialise.