In Romania the government has survived a motion of no-confidence. Bucharest Herald reports that the motion was tabled by the PNL (National Liberal Party) party and the Hungarian minority party, the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR). The motion was tabled in general protest against the government’s economic policy. The government is a coalition of Social Democrats (PSD) and President Traian Băsescu’s Democratic Liberal Party (PDL). The motion received only 112 votes in 471-seat chambler, with 336 deputies present at the vote. A total of 137 deputies voted against the motion.

Meanwhile, Bucharest Herald also reports that President Băsescu has proposed a constitutional reform that would abolish Romania’s upper chamber of parliament and reduce the number of deputies in the lower chamber to a maximum of 300. He is proposing that the referendum be held on the same day as the presidential election on 22 November. Art. 90 of the constitution states that “The President of Romania may, after consultation with Parliament, ask the people of Romania to express, by referendum, its will on matters of national interest.” So, it appears as if the referendum may go ahead.

In Romania the first round of the presidential election will be held on 22 November, with a likely second round on 6 December.

Here is the result of an opinion poll held between 22 July and 2 August organised by CURS – Center for Urban and Regional Sociology. (The results of an Insomar poll are pretty similar).

The question is: ‘If a presidential election were to be held this Sunday, whom would you vote for?’

The incumbent, Traian Băsescu, of the PDL has a comfortable lead. Mircea Geoană, the candidate and leader of the PDL’s coalition partner, the PSD, comes in an easy second. So, they will most likely win through to the second ballot.

The same poll then reports that President Băsescu and Mircea Geoană are neck-and-neck at the second ballot with a small but unreliable advantage for Băsescu. So, competition will be fierce over the next couple of months.

Sources: CURS

The EP election was held in Romania on Sunday.

The turnout was 27.4%. The EP is reporting the following results (2007 in brackets):

PSD-PC (Social Democratic Party and the Conservative Party) – 31.1%, 11 seats (23.11% for PSD, 13, 2.9% for Conservatives, 0)
PD-L (Democratic Liberal Party) – 29.7%, 10 seats (28.8%, 13, plus 7.8%, 3 for PDL, since merged with PD-L)
PNL (National Liberal Party) – 14.5%, 5 seats (13.4%, 6)
PRM (Greater Romania Party) – 8.9%, 3 seats (4.2%, 0)
UDMR (Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania) – 8.7%, 3 seats (5.5%, 2)
Băsescu Elena (daughter of President Băsescu, rejoined PD-L after the election) – 4.2%, 1 seat

Recall that the November 2008 legislative election resulted in a coalition between the PSD and PD-L. So, the two coalition parties were competing against each other and both emerged, unsurprisingly, as the largest parties. The fact that they competed against each other is also unsurprising in that there is a presidential election later this year and both will also be standing candidates there. The rise in support for the far-right, nationalist Greater Romania Party is noteworthy.

An article on the 2007 EP election in Romania can be found here.

In Romania the Presidential Commission for Constitutional Regime Analysis has presented its report to President Traian Basescu. According to Financiarul.ro, the Commission was set up last spring and was headed by Ioan Stanomir, a political scientist in the Department of Political Science at the University of Bucarest.

I am not wholly sure that the report has been made public. Certainly, I have not been able to get hold of a version in English. My understanding is that President Basescu has not made it public, but he has prioritised a number of its 23 recommendations.

For readers of this blog, perhaps the most interesting element of the press conference last week was the statement by President Basescu concerning the semi-presidential nature of the system. As reported in SEEurope.net, he stated: “I believe that a semi-presidential regime is the best solution for Romania. I don’t believe that Romania needs a Presidential regime in which the Head of State is the Head of Government. I also believe that a Parliamentary regime in which the Head of State would no longer be directly elected by the citizens does not express the will of our nation”. While there are those of us who would say that Romania already has a semi-presidential constitution, this statement is being taken as a sign that President Basescu would like to see the powers of the president increased somewhat. For example, Southeast European Times reports him as saying “If we continue to elect a president who can’t act, we will ignore the nation and diminish the democracy. The best term to describe the semi-presidential regime is equilibrium”.

Using Shugart and Carey’s measures of presidential power, Tom Gallagher and Viorel Andrievici have calculated that the Romanian president records a score of 7. This puts Romania on a par with Croatia (2000), just ahead of Lithuania and Ukraine (2006), well ahead of Bulgaria and Macedonia and trailing far behind Belarus, Russia and Ukraine (1996). The full scores are available in Robert Elgie and Sophia Moestrup (eds.), Semi-presidentialism in Central and Eastern Europe, Manchester, Manchester University Press. 2008.

Following on from his own problems a few years ago, President Basescu also wants to see the grounds for impeaching the president changed to include only the charge of high treason. He supports the introduction of a unicameral parliament.

In Romania there are one or two things to report.

Firstly, as expected, the Romanian parliament ratified the nomination of Emil Boc as prime minister on 22 December. He heads a coalition of somewhat uneasy bedfellows, the PD-L and the PSD.

Between now and then, one minister has already resigned. The Interior Minister was criticised by his own party, the PSD, for his appointment of the head of the country’s security services. The party did not approve the appointment and the Minister resigned. Bucharest Herald reports that he has since announced that he is leaving the PSD for good. There is speculation that he and his supporters may join the PD-L.

Finally, on 14 January, Southeast European Times reports that President Traian Basescu has proposed a constitutional reform. Perhaps most notably for the purposes of this blog, he has proposed that the two-chamber parliamentary system be replaced by a unicameral system. He argues that the current chambers are too alike in terms of powers and representation. (It is worth noting that a new PM has to be approved by a vote of both houses.) It might be remembered that parliament tried to impeach the president in 2007. This has lead the opposition to criticise the president and portray his suggestion as an attempt to get his own back on parliament.

Interestingly in the context of this blog, Bucharest Herald reports that President Besescu explicitly said that he supported Romania’s semi-presidential system.

In Romania the prime minister, Theodor Stolojan, has withdrawn his nomination. President Băsescu has chosen Emil Boc from the PD-L as the new prime minister designate.

Balkan Insight reports that Mr Stolojan did not cite any reason for his withdrawal, apart from a desire to see younger politicians be given positions of responsibility. Oddly, his decision came only a day after the two main parties partners, the PD-L and the PDS, had signed their coalition agreement.

As noted in a previous post (thanks to some inside information), the Hungarian minority party, the UDMR, will not be part of the coalition. Their support is not needed because the PD-L and the PDS have a large parliamentary majority. Balkan Insight reports that these parties have 329/471 seats in parliament. However, this is the first time that the UDMR have been absent from a coalition for 12 years. Apparently, the PDS opposed their inclusion, perhaps because the party wishes to appeal to the voters who supported the nationalistic Greater Romania Party in the election.

Article 103-3 of the Romanian constitution states that the prime minister, the government programme and the list of government ministers must be approved by a majority vote of deputies and senators. In a previous post, I only presented the results for the Chamber of Deputies. Here is the result for the Senate.

Social Democratic Party (PSD) and Conservative Party Alliance (PC), 33.9%
Democratic Liberal Party (PD-L), 33.79%
National Liberal Party (PNL), 18.49%
Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR), 6.54%
Greater Romania Party (PRM), 3.55%
New Generation Party – Christian Democratic (PNGCD), 2.55%

The percentages are almost exactly the same as for the Chamber of Deputies.

In Romania President Băsescu has nominated a prime minister following the recent legislative elections. He has nominated Theodor Stolojan, who was already prime minister from 1 Oct 1991-4 Nov 1992. He is an economist who is considered to be a technocrat. However, he is also close to President Băsescu and the Democratic Liberal Party (PD-L).

The prospective prime minister is expected to head a government comprising the PD-L and the PSD. These parties have been opposed and may make uneasy bedfellows. One issue that hangs over the coalition formation is whether the minority parties, particularly the Hungarians’ party will be represented in cabinet. There are some suggestions that the PSD does not want the minority groups to be included.

In theory, the PD-L and the PSD have a comfortable majority. Stolojan’s nomination will need to be ratified by parliament before 22 December.

The situation in Romania is really interesting. The constitution was amended in 2003 to increase the president term of office from four to five years. However, the legislature’s term remained at four years. Previously, presidential and legislative terms had been concurrent. The last elections were in December 2004. So, this is the first election under the non-concurrent system.

The President is Traian Băsescu. He was the former president of the Democratic Party (PD), which merged with the Liberal Party in January 2008 to form the Democratic Liberal Party (PD-L). Technically, Băsescu is a non-party president because the constitution obliges the president to be so. Nonetheless, the PD-L has stated that it will support his re-election campaign next year. Băsescu was suspended from his office by parliament in April 2007, but a referendum in May struck down the impeachment.

The prime minister is Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu. He is the president of the National Liberal Party (PNL). The outgoing government was initially a coalition of PNL, PD, UDMR and PC. However, first the PC in December 2006 and then the PD in April 2007 left the government. So, there has been a minority government since and the prime minister has often relied on the support of the PSD.

Relations between the president and the prime minister have, to say the least, been strained during the last four years.

In this context, the Romanian Election Commission has released the following results for the 2008 election (Chamber of Deputies reported).

Social Democratic Party (PSD) and Conservative Party Alliance (PC), 33%
Democratic Liberal Party (PD-L), 32.57%
National Liberal Party (PNL), 18.32%
Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR), 6.29%
Greater Romania Party (PRM), 3.17%
New Generation Party – Christian Democratic (PNGCD), 2.29%
A number of seats a reserved for representatives of ethnic minorities.

There is a 5% threshold for representation in the Chamber of Deputies.

So, there is no clear result in terms of government formation. Also, next year’s presidential election is already looming and President Băsescu will have this in mind when nominating a prime ministerial candidate. There is a good article outlining some of the coalition options here.