In Romania, Southeast European Times is reporting that the government of Prime Minister Emil Boc was reshuffled on 6 September.

The new government, Boc V, includes six new ministers, though the party composition of the coalition remains the same. The dominant partner is Boc’s Partidul Democrat-Liberal (Democratic Liberal Party – PD-L) and includes the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania – UDMR) as well as a number of independents.

The Boc government is increasingly unpopular, largely because of the austerity measures that have been introduced. The opposition Partidul Social Democrat (Social Democratic Party – PSD) is likely to lodge a motion of censure later this month.

The government of Prime Minister Emil Boc has been approved by the Romanian parliament. The government is a coalition of the PDL party (the president’s party), the Hungarian minority party (UDMR) and independents. The deputy prime minister, Markó Béla, is the leader of the UDMR.

The government was approved on 23 December by a vote of 276-135. It was supported by the PDL, the UDMR, the minorities group and independents. Bucharest Herald reported that 36 parliamentarians (deputies and senators) from the opposition PSD and PNL parties also voted in favour of the government. In addition, 54 PSD and PNL parliamentarians did not attend the vote.

The newly re-elected Romanian president, Traian Băsescu, has reappointed Emil Boc as prime minister. Recall that Boc’s government was brought down in October when the PSD defected from the coalition and there was a successful vote of no-confidence. Anyway, President Băsescu has now re-nominated Boc as prime minister – actually he never left office because no replacement was ever approved – and parliament will have to confirm him.

Whether or not parliament does confirm Boc is another issue. Following the presidential election, there has been speculation that the PNL party, which helped to bring down Boc and which supported Băsescu’s main rival at the presidential election, would be willing to join a coalition with the president’s PDL party in a coalition that perhaps includes the Hungarians, the UDMR, who also voted against Boc.

The main obstacle in the formation of this coalition was the choice of PM. The PNL wanted the position and Băsescu refused. That said, some elements of the PNL did not want to enter the coalition at all.

The bottom line is that Boc’s nomination is by no means guaranteed to be approved by parliament. Therefore, there is still the possibility of a dissolution.

The second round of the Romanian presidential election produced the closest of results. The two candidates were Traian Băsescu (PDL – Democrats) and Mircea Dan Geoana (PSD – Social Democrats). In the days immediately prior to the second ballot there were indications that Geoana was likely to be successful. (See a report here.) On the election night itself both candidates claimed victory and the exit polls seemed to give Geoana an advantage. However, in the end, Băsescu won the narrowest of victories.

The result from the Romanian Central Election Bureau are available here:

Traian Băsescu (PDL – Democrats) – 5,275,808 votes, 50.33 per cent
Mircea Dan Geoana (PSD – Social Democrats) – 5,205,760 votes, 49.66 per cent

Turnout was a lowly 58.02%.

Much will be made of the fact that, in effect, Băsescu won courtesy of the votes of expatriate Romanians, who voted overwhelmingly for him. The overall difference between Băsescu and Geoana was smaller than the difference between the expatriate support for the two candidates.

As discussed in a previous post, had Geoana won then he would most likely have formed a coalition within the existing legislature. However, assuming party loyalties remain the same, and they may not, then Băsescu will have to dissolve the legislature in order to try to manufacture a majority. So, there is a high likelihood of a period of political instability to come.

The Romanian Election Commission has released the results of the seat share for the 2008 election (Chamber of Deputies reported). The situation is interesting because although the PSD/PC Alliance won the most votes, the PD-L has, just, won more seats. To recap:

Social Democratic Party (PSD) and Conservative Party Alliance (PC), 33%, 114 seats
Democratic Liberal Party (PD-L), 32.57%, 115 seats
National Liberal Party (PNL), 18.32%, 65 seats
Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR), 6.29%, 22 seats
Greater Romania Party (PRM), 3.17%, 0 seats
New Generation Party – Christian Democratic (PNGCD), 2.29%, 0 seats
Representatives of ethnic minorities, 18 seats.

The PD-L party is the big winner in the sense that it made a net gain of 48 seats. This does not necessarily make coalition-building any easier, but it does shift any first-mover advantage in that regard clearly to the PD-L.

The second round of the Romanian presidential election will pit incumbent president, Traian Băsescu (PDL – Democrats), with Mircea Dan Geoana (PSD – Social Democrats). In this context, the kingmaker would seem to be the third-placed candidate, George-Crin-Laurenţiu Antonescu (PNL – Liberals), who scored 20.02 per cent at the first ballot.

On Monday, Antonescu made his choice. He announced that he would not vote for what he deemed to be a populist candidate like Băsescu and, in effect, instructed his voters to support Geoana. This alliance has a certain short-term sense to it. The PSD left the PDL-PSD coalition government in October and tried to construct an alliance with the PNL in parliament in order to elect Klaus Johannis as prime minister. In the event, President Băsescu refused to nominate Johannis for the post while the PDL and PSD united to vote down the president’s preferred candidate for PM. This is why Romania still does not have a new PM.

If Geoana were to win, then presumably the legislature would not be dissolved and the PDL and PSD would form a coalition government. If Băsescu were to win, then there would seem to be little option but for him to dissolve the parliament, unless either the PSD or PNL back-tracked on their alliance and decided to support Băsescu once again. This seemingly unlikely possibility should not be ruled out.

The first round of the Romanian presidential election was held on Sunday. On the basis of 99.81% of the votes counted, the Central Election Bureau has announced the following results:

Traian Băsescu (PDL – Democrats) – 32.43 per cent
Mircea Dan Geoana (PSD – Social Democrats) – 31.16 per cent
George-Crin-Laurenţiu Antonescu (PNL – Liberals) – 20.02 per cent
Corneliu Vadim-Tudor (PRM – Greater Romania Party) – 5.55 per cent
Hunor Kelemen (UDMR – Hungarians) – 3.84 per cent
Sorin Mircea Oprescu (ind.) – 3.18 per cent
George Becali (PNG-CD – New Generation Party-Christian Democrat) – 1.91 per cent
Remus Florinel Cernea (Greens) – 0.62 per cent
Constantin Rotaru (Socialist Alliance) – 0.45 per cent
Gheorghe-Eduard Manole (ind.) – 0.35 per cent
Ovidiu Cristian Iane (Ecologists) – 0.23 per cent
Constantin-Ninel Potîrcă (ind.) – 0.21 per cent

Turnout 54.32 per cent

In addition, there was a referendum on whether there should be a unicameral parliament with fewer deputies. According to the Central Election Bureau, the turnout was 50.91 per cent, with the ‘yes’ vote winning 77.78 per cent of the valid votes cast and the ‘no’ vote winning, obviously, 22.22 per cent.

In Romania the legislature has failed to approve the government of prospective prime minister Lucian Croitoru. The vote was 189 in favour (all PDL deputies, plus a few associated) and 236 against (the PDL’s former coalition partner, the PSD, the PNL (Liberals) and the Hungarian minority party, the UDMR).

Recall that the PDL/PSD coalition collapsed a couple of weeks ago when the PSD withdrew. The President then reappointed the Prime Minister, Emil Boc (the Boc II government) as a minority PDL (Democrats) government. The legislature then voted no-confidence in Boc II.

Since then, the search for a new government has been ongoing. President Băsescu proposed another minority PDL government, this time led by Lucian Croitoru, but the legislature has now failed to approve this government. Yesterday’s vote came as no surprise.

The problem is that President Băsescu’s PDL party is now isolated in the legislature and the opposition is unwilling to accept a PDL minority government or to form a coalition with the PDL, even if the president wanted one. By the same token, President Băsescu is unwilling to propose the PNL candidate for prime minister, Klaus Johannis. So, there is a stalemate.

In the meantime, the Boc II government is continuing on an interim basis. The next step is for the president to nominate another prime minister candidate. Given the presidential election is less than three weeks away, it is unlikely that any government will be approved before then, unless the PDL and the PNL can arrive at a deal. President Băsescu has said that he would be willing to accept such a coalition but that the PDL should have the premiership.

President Băsescu cannot dissolve the assembly until after the presidential election, assuming he is returned. In that regard, Bucharest Herald reports a very recent CCSB opinion poll, which indicates the following first round vote:

Băsescu (PDL) – 34 per cent
Geoana (PSD) – 28 per cent
Antonescu (PNL) – 19 per cent
Oprescu (ind.) – 12 per cent
Vadim Tudor (PRM – Greater Romania Party) – 4 per cent
Hunor (UDMR) – 4 per cent
Becali (PNG-CD – New Generation Party-Christian Democrat) – 1 per cent

However, at the second round Băsescu is beaten by any candidate: Geoana (45-55 per cent) Antonescu (47-53 per cent) Oprescu (48-52 per cent).

A recent INSOMAR poll also shows Geoana beating Băsescu at the second ballot.

So, there is little incentive at the moment for the opposition to vote in a new government with any PDL component. Therefore, the stand-off is likely to last until after the presidential election. Ironically, this is the first time that the presidential election has not coincided with legislative elections. This means there is the potential for the crisis to continue after the second round of the presidential election on 6 December.

To add insult to injury, yesterday was President Băsescu’s birthday!

Here is the iron law of the ‘semi-presidential one’ – if your country appears frequently in the posts, then it is in trouble! This is the third Romania post in two weeks. This is not a good sign.

Yesterday, the government faced a no-confidence motion in the legislature and was defeated. This is the story.

Just over two weeks ago, the PNL and UDMR opposition lodged a no-confidence vote against the then PDL/PSD coalition that was easily defeated. A couple of days later the PDL PM, Emil Boc, sacked the PSD Interior Minister because of the latter’s comments about the upcoming presidential election and his fears that it would be rigged in favour of the incumbent PDL president, Traian Băsescu.

As soon as President Băsescu confirmed the dismissal, the PSD left the government. The President then reappointed Boc (the Boc II government) as a minority PDL government.

The PNL and UDMR then lodged a censure motion against the new government. The PSD announced that it would support the motion, though over time the UDMR appeared to equivocate. An appeal as the unconstitutionality of the censure motion was rejected by the Constitutional Court on Monday, leaving the way open for the censure vote yesterday.

The vote was heard in a plenary session of parliament. There are 471 deputies and senators. An absolute of 236 votes was needed. Bucharest Herald reports that the motion received 254 votes with 176 voting against. Therefore, the government fell.

Though there has been a little party shifting since (for example, 5 PNL deputies were excluded yesterday because they did not turn up for the censure motion), the distribution of seats in the Assembly after the 2008 election was as follows (Senate in brackets):

PDL: 115 seats (51)
PSD: 114 seats (49)
PNL: 65 seats (28)
UDMR: 22 seats (9)
Others: 18 seats
Total: 334 seats

According to the Constitution, the president must now propose a new PM for the parliament to approve. Apparently, he met all party groups yesterday, apart from the PSD who boycotted the meeting.

In terms of government formation, there seem to be various options. There could be a technocratic government that would run the country until after the presidential election in late November/early December. Alternatively, there could be a PNL/PSD coalition. This would instigate a period of cohabitation just ahead of the presidential election.

Currently, opinion polls are still showing that President Băsescu will win at the second ballot of the presidential election ahead of the PSD candidate. (See previous post). This is obviously why the PSD wants to put as much pressure on the president as possible in the six weeks before the first round.

Having survived (easily) a motion of no-confidence just a few days ago, the government in Romania has collapsed as a result of internal tensions.

Recall that the government was a two-party coalition of Social Democrats (PSD) and the Democratic Liberal Party (PDL). Both the president and the PM are from the PDL. Anyway, on Thursday the PSD ministers left the coalition.

The problem concerns the (now former) Interior Minister, Dan Nica. Minister Nica was from the PSD. Recently, Minister Nica made a statement in which he implied that there would be vote-rigging in favour of the PDL at the November presidential election. Following his remarks, Prime Minister Emil Boc announced that he was dismissing Minister Nica. The PSD responded by saying that they would leave the government if President Băsescu approved the decision. (Technically, PM Boc sent a letter to President Băsescu requesting the Minister’s dismissal).

On Thursday, President Băsescu signed the dismissal request and appointed an interim interior Minister who is from the PDL. The PSD then immediately left the coalition.

Interim Ministers, all from the PDL, have now been appointed. There are 45 days to form a full government.

Obviously, the upcoming presidential election on 22 November is the background to the difficulty. The opinion polls (see previous post) show that President Băsescu and the PSD leader, Mircea Geoană, are likely to contest the second ballot against each other and that the race is neck-and-neck.

The distribution of seats in the legislature is as follows:

PDL: 115 seats
PSD: 114 seats
PNL: 65 seats
UDMR: 22 seats
Others: 18 seats
Total: 334 seats

So, the PDL is 53 seats short of a majority.

All of this information was taken from various posts at the Bucharest Herald site.