The second round of the Romanian presidential election will pit incumbent president, Traian Băsescu (PDL – Democrats), with Mircea Dan Geoana (PSD – Social Democrats). In this context, the kingmaker would seem to be the third-placed candidate, George-Crin-Laurenţiu Antonescu (PNL – Liberals), who scored 20.02 per cent at the first ballot.

On Monday, Antonescu made his choice. He announced that he would not vote for what he deemed to be a populist candidate like Băsescu and, in effect, instructed his voters to support Geoana. This alliance has a certain short-term sense to it. The PSD left the PDL-PSD coalition government in October and tried to construct an alliance with the PNL in parliament in order to elect Klaus Johannis as prime minister. In the event, President Băsescu refused to nominate Johannis for the post while the PDL and PSD united to vote down the president’s preferred candidate for PM. This is why Romania still does not have a new PM.

If Geoana were to win, then presumably the legislature would not be dissolved and the PDL and PSD would form a coalition government. If Băsescu were to win, then there would seem to be little option but for him to dissolve the parliament, unless either the PSD or PNL back-tracked on their alliance and decided to support Băsescu once again. This seemingly unlikely possibility should not be ruled out.