If you are the PM in France and the president’s closest adviser says that your departure from office is not on the agenda, then you start to worry.

This is what Claude Guéant, the General Secretary of the Elysée (presidency), said in an interview with Le Figaro yesterday. The context is the key thing. Formally, there is nothing in the interview apart from the following exchange:

A. Will François Fillon (the PM) be leaving office?
A. As far as the President is concerned, it’s clear, François Fillon is not leaving. The President believes that they are collaborating well. This issue is definitely not on the agenda.

Q. When he does leave, will he want a European position, President of the European Council or High Representative for Foreign Affairs?
A. That’s absurd. The nominations will be made in November. Contacts are already under way between heads of state and government. For this reason there is no European perspective for François Fillon in the short term.

What is there for the PM to worry about? Well, there is the usual worry. He is the PM! And the PM, in France, is a revolving-door position. He has been in office for two-and-a-half years, so he has had a good innings in French terms. In addition, his popularity ratings are not very high (see previous post) and dissatisfaction with the government seems to be hitting it where it hurts – in the ballot box! (See below). Also, he was recently the source of vitriolic criticism by a minister, Christian Blanc, who complained to the president that the PM had changed at the last minute various decisions that had previously been agreed. The letter was leaked and the PM probably came across as the victim. Nonetheless, it points to the fact that, within the government, and within the broader majority, there is probably little affection for the PM even if most people are still loyal at this point.

So, the fact that the president’s closest adviser was even asked about the PM’s future and that the subsequent declaration of loyalty then made the front page of the country’s two main national newspapers is what gives Fillon something to worry about.

As noted above, the government was recently given a scare at the ballot box. At the end of last month there was a by election in the constituency of Rambouillet (Yvelines). This is a strong UMP (government) area. Anyway, at the second ballot, with a turnout of just over 22%, the UMP candidate won by a meagre 5 votes, or 50.01% to 49.99%. While government supporters clearly stayed at home, there is no doubt that UMP deputies will be worrying about their prospects for re-election and they might think that a change of PM would help.

The other story of the by election was that the main opposition Socialist party candidate was eliminated at the first ballot. Instead, the Green candidate came second and contested the second round. This is another sign of the total disarray in which the socialists find themselves at present. The full result of the by election is available here.