There is a governmental crisis brewing in Guinea-Bissau. The current prime minister, Martinho Dafa Cabi, has been in office since April 2007. He came to power when his predecessor was subject to a vote of no-confidence in the Assembly. Prime Minister Dafa Cabi was appointed on the basis of a so-called Political and Parliamentary Stability Pact that was signed by three parties, the PAIGC with 45/100 seats, the PRS and the PUSD.

Now, the PAIGC has broken with the pact. Afriqueenligne reports that it has done so because it was not told of the prime minister’s decision to replace a number of senior officials before the changes were made. The PAIGC is likely to withdraw from the government and go into opposition, which will make it difficult for the government to survive.

Prime Minister Dafa Cabi is originally from the PAIGC, but he has supported President João Bernardo ‘Nino’ Vieira who was also originally from the PAIGC but who was elected in 2005 against the official PAIGC candidate. The party has not recovered from this schism and President Vieira has had difficulty governing since his election.

The PAIGC’s decision needs to be placed in the context of the parliamentary elections that are supposed to take place later this year in November and the presidential election that is likely to take place early next year.