The legislative election will be held in Portugal on 27 September. Below is the most recent opinion poll (July 2009), though since this time Prime Minister Socrates’ poll rating, and that of his party, the PS, is likely to have declined. He is currently embroiled in the so-called Freeport scandal. This scandal dates back to 2002 when he was Minister of the Environment. He is alleged to have changed the status of a particular piece of protected land so as to grant a licence to a UK company, Freeport, to build a shopping centre on it. Money is alleged to have changed hands in return. There is a report here.

PS (Socialists): 35,5%
PSD (Social democrats – conservatives): 34,2%
BE (Left block): 14,3%
CDU (Communists/Greens): 7,4%
CDS-PP (Christian democrats): 4,4%

Source: Barómetro Político Marktest

On the basis of this poll, the options seem to be either PS or PSD minority government; a PS/PSD grand coalition; or just possibly a PS-BE coalition.