The appointment of Christine Lagarde as Managing Director of the IMF has forced President Sarkozy to reshuffle his government.

Previously, Mme Lagarde was Finance Minister. She has been replaced by the former Budget minister, François Baroin. Both are from Sarkozy’s right-wing UMP party. So, on the face of it, very little has changed.

However, in addition to the appointment of M. Baroin, the reshuffle was notable for the entry of a small number of centrist politicians to the government. President Sarkozy is facing the real threat that he might not qualify for the second round of next year’s presidential election. One reason why is because there are likely to be two centrist candidates standing against him. These candidates will take votes away from him, meaning that the second round could easily be contested between the Socialists and the National Front, leading to a Socialist victory.

In this reshuffle, President Sarkozy has appointed people who disapprove of the candidacy of at least one of the potential centrist candidates. Therefore, he is trying to weaken dissident centrists, Jean-Louis Borloo and Hervé Morin, one of whom is likely to stand (but not both), either to encourage them not to do so or to ensure that they do as badly as possible if they do stand.

One other potential issue is that President Sarkozy chose M. Baroin ahead of Bruno Le Maire, who used to be a supporter of another potential right-wing candidate, Dominique de Villepin. Seemingly, Sarkozy was going to choose M. Le Maire, but changed his mind when Baroin threatened to resign. All the same, M. Le Maire is annoyed. If this encourages him to support de Villepin again or if it encourages de Villepin to stand, then President Sarkozy’s prospects are again damaged.

So, a minor reshuffle has a very political context.

I am tweeting the French presidential election. If you want to follow events there, then please follow me on Twitter @robertelgie